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Thread: Which stonks are you buying if any?

  1. #91
    Crabby Smurf Umfriend's Avatar
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    Mar 2001


    Waiting for ABN and FUR (Dutch both) to finally make some serious gains. Probably won't happen until I sell them first. Other holders of these stocks should pay me to sell them
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  2. #92
    Moderator dZeus's Avatar
    Join Date
    Aug 2000
    over there


    Quote Originally Posted by dZeus View Post
    The UK is seeing a slight resurgence of covid cases, mostly of the B 1.617.2 variant. While in early stages, it may mean that the AstraZeneca vaccine does not provide sufficient protection to slow the spread much of this variant. It's too early to say this with confidence though, and the UK's vaccination rate seem to slow down and might reach a plateau that might be below levels providing herd immunity.
    I'm not very confident that France will do much better, considering the level of vaccine distrust.

    In other news, I had my first jab of the Pfizer vaccine yesterday. Second jab scheduled in 6 weeks.
    IAG shares went further down the drain, should have sold them when they had a pre-gamma variant peak (what sense is there in predicting what's going to happen when I don't follow up my own advice).
    Fortunately compensated by the space investments (former VACQ and NSH SPACs) are taking off, even though I fear it's more because of meme-stock induced 'casino' behaviour, which would be bad long-term as it creates too much fluctuation for institutional investors to consider them.

    Right now I have a real conundrum around investing money for the medium-long term. I believe that:
    - share prices are at rediculous valuations, only made possible because of near-0 interest rates. If interest rates rise, I think it'll be disastrous for the stock market. My broker unfortunately is a pretty big player in margin lending (no, it's not Robin Hood), and I think a market-wide crash would wipe out most margin lendees and cause big trouble with their total balance sheet. Since this broker holds the share entitlement in their name, I'd be pretty far down the list as a creditor. Even though I consider the risk of a market-wide meltdown low (I think central banks would buy whatever it takes to prevent a sudden crash, although it may prove impossible to stem the tide in case enough investors panic. The non-0 risk has enough downside to make me consider the impact and possible mitigation strategies).
    - There's way too much debt in this world to grow out of 'organically'. Near-0 rates and huge amounts of liquidity injections by central banks buy time (or 'kick the can' depending on what your vision is), but there's no 'good' solution in sight for the amount of debt. The low interest rates lead to massive mis-allocation of capital and as a result speculative bubbles everywhere.
    - Politicians and central bankers will try and kick the can down the road a long as they can, and at a certain point will have to accept high (or even very high) inflation without raising rates (aka 'financial repression'). There's still a lot of education to do (on my side) to understand what assets are good to invest in during financial repression. I fear there might be 'mostly losers' in this environment, just some people will lose relatively more than others. Maybe having a (relatively) large mortgage on the house you live in, and use the borrowed money to bring down long-term recurrent costs for heating/energy/upkeep/etc. as much as possible is a good strategy.

    Long term, I would like:
    - to invest in agricultural land in places that is in an area that will 'benefit' from climate change (or at least not do worse). However, it is not very obvious to invest in agricultural land without becoming a farmer (which I don't intend to). Maybe try and find a agricultural cooperative to invest in?
    - invest in water purification technology (there seem to be a lot of investment scams around this concept unfortunately)
    - electrification / energy generation (most western countries have set themselves goals around usage of electric cars and reducing usage of coal and natural gas, but don't have the equivalent investment in generation and distribution of electric energy; never mind energy storage needed when using renewables such as wind and solar); metal-air batteries show some promise, but there are very few publicly tradeable companies to invest is (maybe the Israeli Phinergy?). Most promising technology companies are in startup phase, and as a private investor you need more money than I have available to be able to invest (such as through a platform like EquityZen).
    - fintech that disrupts traditional banks' business model. I'm keeping a close eye on Wise, N26, etc, but they need to become more mature and offer more services in order to really displace traditional banking (or at least, show enough ambition to become like this).
    Last edited by dZeus; 19th September 2021 at 12:08.

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