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Thread: Which stonks are you buying if any?

  1. #136
    Crabby Smurf Umfriend's Avatar
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    So Philips. Had a bit of bad news regarding ventilators on recall. I think (or *speculate*) that markets tend to overreact and so I went in for a bit. Goal is to, over time, make 100 shares worth in realised profits, first including option premia.
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  2. #137
    Moderator Dr Mordrid's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Umfriend View Post
    So Philips. Had a bit of bad news regarding ventilators on recall. I think (or *speculate*) that markets tend to overreact and so I went in for a bit. Goal is to, over time, make 100 shares worth in realised profits, first including option premia.
    Is this same issue they had with carcinogenic foam particles in their CPAP machines?
    Last edited by Dr Mordrid; 1st May 2022 at 10:44.
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  3. #138
    Crabby Smurf Umfriend's Avatar
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    Yeah, I think so.
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  4. #139
    Super MURCer UtwigMU's Avatar
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    How are you all doing. I checked my stonks and I'm only down 6% YTD.

  5. #140
    Moderator Dr Mordrid's Avatar
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    Doing pretty okay, down on Tesla from its peaks but they're getting ready to do a 3-1 split in August. Long hold anyway.
    Dr. Mordrid
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  6. #141
    Crabby Smurf Umfriend's Avatar
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    Yeah, given how FUR performed, I am doing nicely. Philips is not doing well lately so I haven't bought the dip fully yet but it'll get there. Friday I will very likely get another 100 @ 22 whereas market is 21.66 now.
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  7. #142
    Super MURCer UtwigMU's Avatar
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    Loaded on INTC at 35. I estimate fair value to be $32-37
    Hope to hit 60 by 2027 and if not there's dividend.

  8. #143
    Moderator Dr Mordrid's Avatar
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    Thursday at 2000 Eastern T-Mobile and SpaceX will announce a collaboration. The speculation is T-Mobile will roll out 5G/LTE service
    using Starlink to do the backhaul. This could be a really big deal in areas which don't have fiber.

    The US Department of Defense is also exploring a universal optical communications node which would fit on LEO constellation satellites, allowing data to be passed from one network to another. Initial networks would be Starlink, Telesat, ViaSat, Kuiper, and Spacelink.

    A Starlink IPO could come as soon as 2025 or 2026.
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  9. #144
    Moderator dZeus's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by UtwigMU View Post


    Loaded on INTC at 35. I estimate fair value to be $32-37
    Hope to hit 60 by 2027 and if not there's dividend.
    Maybe if the CCP invades Taiwan...
    And even then, wouldn't Samsung Electronics be a safer bet? Intel hasn't really inspired confidence that they have truly mastered sub-14nm litho processes so far.
    As far as their chips, I see them losing more and more terrain to custom ARM designs fabbed on TSMC/Samsung/chinese fabs.
    Last edited by dZeus; 28th August 2022 at 09:51.

  10. #145
    Super MURCer UtwigMU's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by dZeus View Post
    Maybe if the CCP invades Taiwan...
    And even then, wouldn't Samsung Electronics be a safer bet? Intel hasn't really inspired confidence that they have truly mastered sub-14nm litho processes so far.
    As far as their chips, I see them losing more and more terrain to custom ARM designs fabbed on TSMC/Samsung/chinese fabs.
    Samsung is a big company making lots of stuff and is hardly profitable. Haven't researched it enough and what portion of revenue are different segments to make any predictions.

    The catch is my portfolio now is now like 60% dividend stocks. I started with this in the upturn. The upside is I'm only down like 3-4% YTD. But now that we are in dowturn - I expect to hit low point during winter - I want to start buying cheap growth stocks. I identified Intel as cheap. The upside i see is them building two new fabs and doubling rnd investments. Also the upside I see 40% cloud datacenter growth (Azure and AWS are growing at that rate). Once they get 10nm and 7nm Xeons out they will start to be more interesting and PE will go into double digits.

    I plan to build semi portfolio. I own nVidia but at the moment while down from their heights, I see they might go down still before going up again. Same goes for AMD (own two shares in my meme portfolio which did worse than my serious portfolio)

    Another interesting stock with growth potential at the moment is ebay. They are growing, are sound and during inflation/recession people will buy/sell used stuff more.

    I screwed up my prediction of Russia not invading Ukraine in December. I was looking at oil stocks (Chevron is better company than Exxon, came to this conclusion before finding out Buffet also likes CVX) but bought MSFT instead. CVX is up 40% YTD.

    Since Fed is already tightening at 2.5% while ECB is only at 0.75% and if they tighten more Italy and south of Europe are fscked any decent US stock is a good buy at the moment. Euro will go down for forseable future.
    Last edited by UtwigMU; 28th August 2022 at 16:42.

  11. #146
    Super MURCer UtwigMU's Avatar
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    Found this:
    z7jg4qvoynk91.jpg

    How will you survive winter my fellow Euro Murcers?
    Slovenia is 1/3 Nuke 1/3 Coal (own mine) 1/3 hydro and 50% of surface area is forest.

  12. #147
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    In Belgium there are predictions that energy cost (gas+electricity) for an average family could become as high as 10000 euro/year.

    Belgium is 70% nuclear, and the plants are scheduled to close in two years. There is insufficient infrastructure to cover this loss - the plan was to build 6 gas powerplants as the renewable infrastructure is growing too slow, but not only is it impossible to build 6 gas-plants from scratch in 2 years if you don't even have the permits, but currently gas is not an option. Germany has a problem as they are closing their nuclear plants, and cannot start up old coal-plants as they are partly dismantled.

    Personally, in Warsaw, I'm more worried about continuity rather than cost: in Warsaw we are dependent on a co-generation coal plant for both heating (district heating) as well as electricity. Of course, that heating plant supplies 1/3rd of Warsaw with heat and power, so most likely they will try to keep that one active. Still it seems possible that there will be interruptions in service. So I've been playing with the idea of getting a portable solar/battery backup (e.g. https://www.bluettipower.eu/products...0w-solar-panel ): I can put such portable panels on my (closed) balcony which is facing south, and could hope to get enough power for lights and basic stuff. On one hand it seems overkill, but having to spend half of your evening in darkness is also not an option (sunset in winter here can be as early as 15.30). So still holding it off, but more and more thinking about getting it... I have a UPS though, so some lights I could connect to that one.
    pixar
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  13. #148
    Moderator dZeus's Avatar
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    I'm in year 2 of a 3 year fixed price gas contract. The plan is to install 9 KW potential PV and use that to drive a heat pump for underfloor heating to reduce the need for gas, but it gets sufficiently cold here in winter that it won't be possible to eliminate the need for gas (at least, that is my estimation). And there's a wood stove in the living room for extra comfort or in case of emergencies.

    No idea what to do with the excess capacity in summer (10 kWh production estimated per year, might use 2-4 for heating), as there is no need for AC nor do I drive electric (not now nor for the foreseeable future). Not planning to set up crypto mining either. Maybe install shutters that cover the PV panels in summer to increase longevity?

  14. #149
    Moderator VJ's Avatar
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    Don't wait long: there are huge supply chain issues with inverters and heatpumps (in Belgium waiting lists for more than 6 months for inverters, which may make people miss out on subsidies for installing PVs, as the installations won't be activated this year; here we are struggling to get heatpumps, flow meters, etc. in the scope of a project; with easily 3 months waiting lists and no certainty that by then you will have it, nor if the price will still be the same).

    We live in an apartment, so are quite limited what we can do. Installing another heating system is almost not possible. We have airco that can heat, but need electricity for that, and don't have an option to install a lot of PVs. But I'm guessing priority will be given to the district heating system, so I doubt we would be without heating. I still fear we may have breaks in heating (or lowered heat capacity) and/or breaks in electricity supply. Worst case we can always move in with my in-laws, who have gas heating but will reinstall their woodburning stove (the chminey is still there, so they "just" have to open up the wall to access it) to install it and have a back-up heating.
    pixar
    Dream as if you'll live forever. Live as if you'll die tomorrow. (James Dean)

  15. #150
    Super MURCer UtwigMU's Avatar
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    IBM beat expectations, Red Hat up 18% cc, Mainframe up 98% cc, Revenue up 6% (15% constant currency). Waiting for MSFT tomorrow. Meanwhile picked up some AMD after it fell this month.

    Stock down 4% YTD compared to SP500 beind down 22%.

    Overall portfolio up is 5% up from purchase prices due to weak Euro, down 13% from heights at the start of the year.
    Last edited by UtwigMU; 19th October 2022 at 14:51.

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