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Thread: Tesla: highest valued car company (Q2 profits, new factory, Roadster 2)

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    Moderator Dr Mordrid's Avatar
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    Lightbulb Tesla: highest valued car company (Q2 profits, new factory, Roadster 2)

    Higher than the previous #1, Toyota

    Tesla's Q2 delivery numbers have been released. Because of the CoVid-19 shutdown of their Fremont factory expectations were low.

    Market concensus: 72,000

    Actual deliveries: 90,650

    80% of their deliveries were the Model 3 sedan and the new model Y Crossover SUV.

    Tesla close: 1,208.66 USD +89.03 (7.95%)

    Market cap: $224.05 billion

    Former Ford COO & CEO Mark Fields thinks Tesla's going higher because of their technology lead. Some analysts are giving guidance from 1,500-2,000

    If this results in the expected profitable Q2 it's likely they'll join Standard & Poor's 500.
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    Moderator dZeus's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Dr Mordrid View Post
    Higher than the previous #1, Toyota

    Tesla's Q2 delivery numbers have been released. Because of the CoVid-19 shutdown of their Fremont factory expectations were low.

    Market concensus: 72,000

    Actual deliveries: 90,650

    80% of their deliveries were the Model 3 sedan and the new model Y Crossover SUV.

    Tesla close: 1,208.66 USD +89.03 (7.95%)

    Market cap: $224.05 billion

    Former Ford COO & CEO Mark Fields thinks Tesla's going higher because of their technology lead. Some analysts are giving guidance from 1,500-2,000

    If this results in the expected profitable Q2 it's likely they'll join Standard & Poor's 500.
    So a company that sells as many cars in 3-4 days as that Tesla sells in an entire quarter and turns a healthy profit at it, is worth less than Tesla ?
    Makes perfect sense.

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    Crabby Smurf Umfriend's Avatar
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    I am ignorant w.r.t. whether Tesla is over/under valued. However, the metric used, simplified, to value is to look at expected future profits (discounted at a rate appropriate for the systemic risk therein). Ford, Toyota, VW etc. may be big and churn out profits predictably but I can imagine that there is not a lot of upside in expected profits compared to recent history. With Tesla, that may well be different and that may explain it. Having said that, although I believe markets should be seen as rational, that does not mean markets are always right, au contraire.
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    Moderator VJ's Avatar
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    Tesla is I think still valued as a technological sector company rather than a true car company. Realistically, market value does not fully represent company worth; Umfriend has a point: it has more growth potential than current established car companies, which risk of loosing market share to the startups or loosing profits due to necessary investments for new models.
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    Crabby Smurf Umfriend's Avatar
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    Actually, assuming Tesla is values as a tech company (and I will accept that it is), then I would wonder whether it isn't overvalued indeed. The reasoning being that true tech companies, as I see it, are able to generate revenue at low marginal cost, combined with some sort of monopolistic position. At the end of the day, cars are a durable good which means that revenue from a perspective customer has a low repeat rate and marginal cost (producing the car) is high. It is a margin product. With such products, competition, I think, really puts pressure on such margin.

    Edit:
    Quote Originally Posted by VJ
    Realistically, market value does not fully represent company worth
    Even if that is true, what would be a better representation?
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    Moderator Dr Mordrid's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by VJ View Post
    Tesla is I think still valued as a technological sector company rather than a true car company. Realistically, market value does not fully represent company worth; Umfriend has a point: it has more growth potential than current established car companies, which risk of loosing market share to the startups or loosing profits due to necessary investments for new models.
    This.

    What's often ignored is Tesla's technology lead in both EV hardware & software, batteries, and that their Tesla Power subsidiary is really taking off with turn-key utility-scale power storage which could destroy then need for "peaker" generating plants.

    Next up is the testing in Australia of a virtual electric power plant; distributed generation (solar, etc) and storage negating the need for a physical generation plant. This will eventually include homeowners EV's as part of the (massive) virtual storage system.
    Dr. Mordrid
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    Moderator Dr Mordrid's Avatar
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    Tesla's Berlin Gigafactory is well underway, vertical columns going up and targeting a production start by July 2021. Recently added to the plan is a test track.

    Dr. Mordrid
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    Moderator Dr Mordrid's Avatar
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    Jesus....

    Monday's close: 1,371.58 USD +162.92 (13.48%), market cap 254.25 billion, and 1,410 in the after-market.

    with forecasts it could hit 2,000+
    Dr. Mordrid
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    Moderator Dr Mordrid's Avatar
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    New factory timeline

    Giga Berlin (production: mid-2021)
    Giga Austin, Texas (or Oklahoma City)
    Giga Asia 2 (not China)
    Giga ??
    Dr. Mordrid
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    Moderator Dr Mordrid's Avatar
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    Tesla has picked Austin, Texas for its $1.1 billion Cybertruck and second Model Y crossover SUV factory. NO state incentives, and site prep started last Tuesday. Should be building vehicles mid-2021.

    Later in 2021 Tesla will begin building the Roadster 2 hypercar at a new line at Fremont, CA; 0-60 in 1.9sec, 250+ mph, 600+ mile range, and an optional SpaceX Package - 10 gas thrusters for enhanced braking, maneuvering and acceleration. These thrusters are similar to those used on the Falcon 9 rocket.

    Beat the street in Q2, possible joining the S&P 500 index. Closed at 1,592.33, hitting 1,657.00 afterhours.

    https://www.cnbc.com/2020/07/22/stoc...-and-more.html

    Tesla — The automaker’s stock climbed 5% after the market closed. Tesla released second-quarter earnings of $2.18 per share excluding some items on revenues of $6.04 billion while Refinitiv analysts had expected earnings per share of 3 cents on revenues of $5.37 billion. Tesla also reported its first full year of profitability based on GAAP, so the company can now be considered to join the S&P 500 index.
    Dr. Mordrid
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    An elephant is a mouse built to government specifications.

    I carry a gun because I can't throw a rock 1,250 fps

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