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Thread: WTF :2019-nCoV NovaCoronaVirus Thread

  1. #541
    Super MURCer UtwigMU's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Umfriend View Post
    Haven't worked? By what standard? It seems pretty clear to me that distancing, air-conditioning, masks and vaccines have prevented a lot of death.
    Sweden 1491 / M deaths
    NL 1191 / M deaths


    Stop? As in completely? Clearly not. Diminish? Yes, to a large degree up to and including Delta.
    Reduces hospitalization and death. We won't be back to "normal" until at least 2023. Doesn't greatly reduce spread (39% transimissions vax to vax). NL maxvaxxed more cases than last year and first half of this year.


    Everybody knows that the current situation is bad but what I cannot understand is by what reasoning it would be better if we opened up everything and we would suffer millions of additional deaths.
    We should improve treatment, increase hospital capacity (2 years of covid, less capacity in many countries). I'm not saying open everything up like big soccer matches or concerts but clearly closing a store of some umbrella repairman or wooden toys or other small businesses probably does nothing to reduce spread of covid.

    Umfriend, please don't be like the guys who still believe Saddam had WMD.

  2. #542
    Crabby Smurf Umfriend's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by UtwigMU View Post
    Sweden 1491 / M deaths
    NL 1191 / M deaths
    Sweden 25.4 / Km^2
    NL 508 / Km^2
    Reduces hospitalization and death. We won't be back to "normal" until at least 2023. Doesn't greatly reduce spread (39% transimissions vax to vax). NL maxvaxxed more cases than last year and first half of this year.
    ?? OK, so let's say, 39% of cases are vax-to-vax, 61% of cases are novax-related. 85% is vaxxed. Let's say 1000 people, 100 cases.
    1. 850 vaxxed, 39 cases = 4.6%
    2. 150 non-vaxxed, 61 cases = 40.1%
    We should improve treatment, increase hospital capacity (2 years of covid, less capacity in many countries). I'm not saying open everything up like big soccer matches or concerts but clearly closing a store of some umbrella repairman or wooden toys or other small businesses probably does nothing to reduce spread of covid.
    I agree. However, it does not matter. There is no way to sensibly increase hospital capacity within a reasonable timeframe that would be able to cope with the load that we have now, let alone an even higher load that may come due to Omicron.

    Umfriend, please don't be like the guys who still believe Saddam had WMD.
    No clue what this is about but, Utwig, please don't be like the guys that copy any statistic without first considering whether they are true, fair, not misleading and rather relevant.

    Edit: To be sure, that 4.6% vs 40.1% "analysis" points to a whopping 19K hospitalizations in NL of which 4.8K in the ICU had the 85% not been vaxxed. We have an ICU capacity of like 1,300.
    Last edited by Umfriend; 20th December 2021 at 07:09.
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  3. #543
    Moderator Dr Mordrid's Avatar
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    /sigh...

    People, PLEASE get your vax & boosters...

    For the first 2 Modernas I had a sore arm for 1 day each. For the booster I was a bit tired for 2 days as my immune system started cranking out antibodies. Neither amounted to a hill of beans.

    https://arstechnica.com/science/2021...in-antibodies/

    Third dose of Moderna COVID-19 vaccine leads to 37-fold jump in antibodies

    While work on omicron-specific shots continues, boosters thwart severe omicron infections.

    >
    Moderna announced Monday that its booster provides protection against COVID-19 variant omicron. In its testing, Moderna found a 50-microgram dose resulted in a 37-fold increase of antibodies compared to vaccinated, unboosted individuals.

    A 100 µg dose, which is the same amount used in the first two vaccine doses, provided even more protection, increasing antibody levels 83-fold.*But that increased immune response was paired with slightly worse side effects than with the smaller dose.
    >
    ​
    Last edited by Dr Mordrid; 20th December 2021 at 08:14.
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  4. #544
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    I was ill for two days after the 2nd Moderna shot last July. I'll take the 3rd/Booster whenever I can.
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  5. #545
    Moderator Dr Mordrid's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Umfriend View Post
    I was ill for two days after the 2nd Moderna shot last July. I'll take the 3rd/Booster whenever I can.
    We're pretty lucky with good supplies and many pharmacies accepting walk-ins including WalMart. A friend was in and out in 20 min.
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  6. #546
    Super MURCer UtwigMU's Avatar
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    Good news is that Novavax has been approved in EU. It is traditional vaccine with virus parts and adjuvants, not mRNA or vector.

    Here we have 24/7 vaccination centers open. A couple of weeks ago we didn't have enough medical staff and asked Italy for help, then sent their doctors and nurses home because they couldn't give them work permits, but now we have staff to sit in small town medical centers through night. Normal medical procedures are 3-18 months wait time since pre Covid.

    I tested twice today: Once at work (mandatory 3x a week self testing for all unvaxxed workers) and then again during lunch so I have my green pass and can go for lunch. I still did groceries at smaller store that doesn't require pass since showing ID on entrance to some random dude who doesn't work according to private security laws ruins my shopping experience.

    I've been to Israel and while you need to go through metal detector for some places they don't bother you with IDs there.
    Last edited by UtwigMU; 20th December 2021 at 13:39.

  7. #547
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    You are still unvaxxed?
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  8. #548
    Moderator VJ's Avatar
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    A problem with covid news often is in the statistics and the lack of context. An example was in Belgium, when it was said that 50% of people in ICU were not vaccinated. The antivaxxers used it to show that vaccines don't work, but that omits the fact that 80% of the population (at that time) was vaccinated. So the much bigger population of vaccinated people gave the same number of people on ICU as the much smaller group of non-vaccinated. Important context... Worse IMO is the comparison between countries. Nordic countries (Sweden, Denmark), have a completely different approach to social life, which happens much more at home in small circles. So while I agree that countries did not always introduce the best restrictions for their own culture (they copied from others), you cannot just compare the statistics without any context.
    I think this issue with the statistics is also a feeding ground for misinformation.

    In Poland, vaccination rate is 56%. And while I do not like the government, I have to admit that this low rate of vaccination is not their fault. From the get-go, they made it easy to get vaccinated (early on there were queues of course), you do not have to travel far (many vaccination points) and have full freedom in choosing when and where. In the beginning, Poland was one of the fastest when it came to vaccinations. Now, if you want to get vaccinated, there are vaccination points open till 22.00. The problem to some extent is Polish Church and anti-vaxxers that have quite an influence.

    I had my booster shot a few weeks ago.
    Last edited by VJ; 21st December 2021 at 01:35.
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  9. #549
    Super MURCer UtwigMU's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Umfriend View Post
    You are still unvaxxed?
    Yes. Probably only one here on MURC.
    Vaccine reduces chances of hospitalization and death for about 6 months and has side effects which may be irreversible and in worst case debilitating so I decided against. My risks from covid are about 2x greater than risks from vaccine but probability of getting covid in next 6 months is only around 30% or so. My ~70y old relatives in not so great health recovered fine without hospitalization a year ago so this is what I assume will happen to me.

    Also I live alone in small town, work in company with not many visitors (we sell b2d), freelance and Japanese online. I don't go out much. Father is recovered and vaccinated, mother is in great health, I test frequently and before visiting.

    I never took a flu shot, I took meningitis shot in the army and all regular shots given to us in early childhood.
    Last edited by UtwigMU; 21st December 2021 at 03:42.

  10. #550
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    I think difference between west and east Europe comes from:
    Post war western Europe was really good. Governments were efficient, standard of living was good and there were not many gross mistakes or human rights violations from governments. People have a belief government is good and has citizen's best interest in mind.
    In eastern Europe life was not so good but governments kept telling people they live in better system. Eg. here inflation was high, government told people to save in local currency in state banks. Those who listened lost everything. Those who bought foreign currency on black market and held it at home won out. When I was 10 I had NL Guldens Deutch Marks and Swiss Franks. So people in east think government does not always have their best interest in mind and are skeptical by nature.

    Here we have most pro-vax conservative government (EPP, some ALDE) and all parliamentary parties signed pro-vax declaration. Far left (Syriza like party) almost excommunicated a member for being anti-vax and self treating with ivermecting. But both moderate right and populist and far left people don't want to get vaccinated. Now mainly already vaccinated are taking 3d booster but uptake of new vaccinations is slow. If they will want to introduce vax mandate there will again be 2% of country population protesting infront of parliament.
    Last edited by UtwigMU; 21st December 2021 at 02:15.

  11. #551
    Moderator VJ's Avatar
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    This is something I also see in Poland: this very strong belief that everywhere else it is better.
    I'm from Belgium, we haven't had efficiency in government in... I don't know how long. I've lived in different countries, and everywhere there is a bit of a feeling that other countries are better organized; everywhere they say "only in this country". But it is usually at such a hidden level that you have to really live in a country to experience it. Sure, some things will be better elsewhere, but others won't be. My in-laws were surprised when I tell them how some thing are organized/governed in Belgium, they really thought some things would be better than in Poland.
    The societal differences, how people live and work are I think creating a much bigger difference.
    Last edited by VJ; 21st December 2021 at 02:13.
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  12. #552
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    Quote Originally Posted by VJ View Post
    I'm from Belgium, we haven't had efficiency in government in... I don't know how long.
    ROFL. You guys had it but said nah in 1830

    Seriously, we're not that bad relatively but just scratch the surface and all kinds of nasty and naughty comes up. I think we're one of the best countries in the world to live in. I also think we could improve a lot.
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  13. #553
    Super MURCer UtwigMU's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Umfriend View Post
    ROFL. You guys had it but said nah in 1830

    Seriously, we're not that bad relatively but just scratch the surface and all kinds of nasty and naughty comes up. I think we're one of the best countries in the world to live in. I also think we could improve a lot.
    It takes a bit of travel to appreciate your own country.
    Slovenia:
    one of top safest countries in the world, can live car or apartment unlocked, can walk alone at night
    high GDP
    high HDI, 22nd between Japan, Liechtenstain and Luxembourg, South Korea, inequality adjusted 9th between NL and DE
    high equality, lowest gini
    12th most powerful passport
    A to AA credit rating
    beautiful nature, 50% forest, 1h drive to mountains, sea
    no vax mandate
    can own guns
    low taxes for self employed (4% for up to 50k, will get increased to 8% up to 50k)
    most people speak at least one foreign language
    Last edited by UtwigMU; 21st December 2021 at 03:17.

  14. #554
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    Quote Originally Posted by UtwigMU View Post
    It takes a bit of travel to appreciate your own country.
    And it takes living in another country to see the societal and political nuances that are so important.
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  15. #555
    Crabby Smurf Umfriend's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by UtwigMU View Post
    Yes. Probably only one here on MURC.
    Vaccine reduces chances of hospitalization and death for about 6 months and has side effects which may be irreversible and in worst case debilitating so I decided against. My risks from covid are about 2x greater than risks from vaccine but probability of getting covid in next 6 months is only around 30% or so. My ~70y old relatives in not so great health recovered fine without hospitalization a year ago so this is what I assume will happen to me.
    I hope you don't get it and that if you do you'll be fine. I am worried that you are relying on simple and/or biased and/or irrelevant statistics but then it is not like I know the whole story. What I do think though is that if everyone went by your analysis, many would not be vaxxed which in turn would increase the probability of bad outcomes many times. To be sure, I think that your claimed probability of getting infected within 6 months at 30% (no clue whether that is accurate) is at 30% because many around you did take the shot.
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