WTF :2019-nCoV NovaCoronaVirus Thread

[Umfriend]

You guys are rounding the corner. Clearly. What is behind the corner no one knows. It may be the biggest most beautiful best abyss since Lincoln I hear people say but we're not sure but it is beautiful. But at least, USA-wide, you are doing way way better than Europe I think. I think I may be in the most infectious country in the world currently.

[UtwigMU]

Daily new cases reached peak yeasterday one week into a lockdown. Around 3% of population infected. Coworker got infected a week ago so I WFH for couple of days, haven't been in touch with her, so I'm OK.

[Dr Mordrid]

US cases & deaths

Screenshot_2020-10-30-19-41-05-804.jpeg

[UtwigMU]

Ordered a printer online to print all the required forms, job and rental contracts I should keep with me. I cross county when I go to work but I have never been pulled over.

2 weeks of lockdown are working, less daily cases.

Coworker who got sick is recovering but entire family including elderly got infected. I'd hate to be in such position.

[Umfriend]

It is a bit early to tell but it seems that restrictions as of October 14th indeed have an effect on positive tests. My guess is that we will not have as many hospitalizations and ICU cases as we had end of March, but it will be close.

[Umfriend]

So we're now at 45 daily positive tests per 100K and it indeed seems we are getting R below 1. However, as we face increasing pressure on health care for a couple of weeks still, say 4 weeks at least, we get another round of restrictions: Musea, zoo's, casino's (who cares), pools&sauna's are to close for 2 weeks, no gatherings of more than 2 people (other than actual protests). The intention is to really get R really low for a short while I guess. We may get curfews locally and there is a strong advice not to travel abroad at least until half of January. Fat chance on that one as many like to go skiing during Christmas holidays but whatever. We may get a mask mandate December 1st for public indoor spaces.

[dZeus]

So we're now at 45 daily positive tests per 100K and it indeed seems we are getting R below 1. However, as we face increasing pressure on health care for a couple of weeks still, say 4 weeks at least, we get another round of restrictions: Musea, zoo's, casino's (who cares), pools&sauna's are to close for 2 weeks, no gatherings of more than 2 people (other than actual protests). The intention is to really get R really low for a short while I guess. We may get curfews locally and there is a strong advice not to travel abroad at least until half of January. Fat chance on that one as many like to go skiing during Christmas holidays but whatever. We may get a mask mandate December 1st for public indoor spaces.

We've had mask mandate for months now, and honestly it seems more like a superficial measure. The standard cloth masks that most people wear don't seem to offer much in terms of protection from others; I guess the idea is that if you are infected and cough, it stops a large percentage of the virus particles from spreading.

What I see as issues with this approach is:
- if you get close enough to someone else and cough, you're likely to spread a substantial dose of viral particles regardless of whether you are wearing a mask or not.
- 90-95% of the population was wearing masks before confinement; I'm willing to bet that the 5-10% who refuse to wear masks is a largely overlapping with the segment of the population that will go out and use public transport, go into shops, etc. while they are infected and they know it (heavily coughing, etc.).

Since the French really don't (want to) understand social distancing, this approach of cloth masks largely unsuccessful in slowing/stopping spread.

[UtwigMU]

Another advantage of masks is it prevents you from touching face and mouth when in shops or other places where virus may be on surfaces

[Dr Mordrid]

A 2-layer mask such as a folded bandana ("cowboy mask") only stops <20% of droplets. Woven cloth masks, almost all of homemade ones, need 3+ layers to become even marginally effective. IF you add polypropylene meltblown non-woven filter fabric, a homemade mask becomes much more effective - sometimes as good as an N95. Fabric stores, Walmart and some Etsy sources carry it, costing about $10 per square yard.

[Umfriend]

I only use disposable masks. They look like what is used in hospitals as well but not sure they are, hard to find actual data/tests. They are 3-layer and I think the middle one is that meltblown stuff. AFAIK, people who make their own masks are advised to use three layers and at least two types of fabric.

[Umfriend]

I don't get it. AFAIK, the expected number of people to suffer from serious side-effects from AstraZeneca is about 1 in 250K and death about 1 in a million. With the Janssen vaccine, I think, it appears to be a bit better. Surely, we should let people who would choose to have these? I understand the mRNA vaccines by BioNTech and Moderna appear to have a higher efficacy and less side-effect but it will take months, at the least, until production capacity is sufficiently upsized. I'd take Astra or Janssen right now if I could.

[dZeus]

I don't get it. AFAIK, the expected number of people to suffer from serious side-effects from AstraZeneca is about 1 in 250K and death about 1 in a million. With the Janssen vaccine, I think, it appears to be a bit better. Surely, we should let people who would choose to have these? I understand the mRNA vaccines by BioNTech and Moderna appear to have a higher efficacy and less side-effect but it will take months, at the least, until production capacity is sufficiently upsized. I'd take Astra or Janssen right now if I could.

It's ludicrous... It seems that only the UK and Israel have had the right approach on vaccinations so far. The potential upside of getting to herd immunity vastly outweigh the small percentage of bad side effects from the vaccines used (and so far nothing too serous has come up to change the stance on vaccination).

[paulw]

You've most likely gotten a better chance of winning Lotto than dying from the Vax..

[Umfriend]

It's ludicrous... It seems that only the UK and Israel have had the right approach on vaccinations so far. The potential upside of getting to herd immunity vastly outweigh the small percentage of bad side effects from the vaccines used (and so far nothing too serous has come up to change the stance on vaccination).

Well, the US certainly isn't doing to bad either. They somehow got it started reasonably well in Nov/Dec 2020. Sure, not as fast as Israel but 7mm vs 330mm and a huge logistical challenge makes them incomparable IMO.

You've most likely gotten a better chance of winning Lotto than dying from the Vax..

I am thinking not quite, certainly not compared to Astra. But, unlike the Lotto, the Vax is free!

[VJ]

The Guardian had a nice write-up on the issues: https://www.theguardian.com/world/20...zeneca-vaccine

In Poland, there are a lot of cases, but vaccination is going quite well. I'm scheduled for May 12, but am also on reserve lists (so they can call me if someone cannot be vaccinated and they need to use the vaccine).