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Thread: WTF :2019-nCoV NovaCoronaVirus Thread

  1. #166
    Moderator VJ's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Umfriend View Post
    The objective has been, for a while now and IMHO, to try to ensure that we do not suffer a lot of additional deaths (including non-Covid) due to the health care systems becoming overloaded.
    And that is exactly the point everyone is missing...

    Quote Originally Posted by Umfriend View Post
    I'll make another prediction: Wisconsin had a protest of a few thousand on April 24th. In the period between May 8th and May 15th, we will see a seizable uptick in new cases in Wisconsin that can be tracked back to this protest.
    Kentucky saw a the sharpest increase since the start of the pandemic
    https://www.kentucky.com/news/corona...242124556.html
    and it is attributed to a lock-down protest of 100 people
    https://www.iflscience.com/health-an...down-protests/
    Though I feel that, with just 4 days between protest (April 15) and cases (press conference on April 19), attributing the increase to the protest may be a bit of a stretch given the incubation time...
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  2. #167
    Crabby Smurf Umfriend's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by dZeus View Post
    The healthcare system would not have been overloaded if there had been a better and earlier focus on confining the elderly and people with underlying conditions.
    Germany has shown this is feasible. Almost every other country in Europe + the US has screwed up confinement of the elderly. (although I have to admit it's hard to confine elderly when they mostly live with their children/grandchildren like in Italy).

    General confinement is an overreaction of incompetent politicians who only started to take things seriously when Italy's healthcare system was getting swamped. At that point they had at least 4 weeks to prepare, but squandered it.
    Yeah, Germany seems to be doing well. They started testing aggressively very early on. I wonder how much severe restrictions are in other European countries? Aside from Italy, Spain and France, I don't think the differences with Germany are that large. And in those countries (IT, ES, FR), to my mind, the epidemic was already to widespread to try to only copy the German policy.
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  3. #168
    Crabby Smurf Umfriend's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by VJ View Post
    Though I feel that, with just 4 days between protest (April 15) and cases (press conference on April 19), attributing the increase to the protest may be a bit of a stretch given the incubation time...
    I don't think it was suggested that the two were causally linked, it was just "following" as in occurring later to illustrate that the epidemic wasn't residing yet at the time of the protest.
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  4. #169
    Moderator dZeus's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Umfriend View Post
    Yeah, Germany seems to be doing well. They started testing aggressively very early on. I wonder how much severe restrictions are in other European countries? Aside from Italy, Spain and France, I don't think the differences with Germany are that large. And in those countries (IT, ES, FR), to my mind, the epidemic was already to widespread to try to only copy the German policy.
    In France prior to the general confinement, the messages conveyed from medical experts and government officials was 'it's only a bad flu'. As a result, most of the general population didn't take it seriously, including a lot of elderly and those with underlying conditions.
    Equally, there were no protocols in place for nursing homes, or even materials for protection in these places (masks, disinfectants). As a result, nursing homes in France suffered a fairly high number of deaths.
    I strongly suspect the Germans took things much more seriously and have put proper protocols in place for nursing homes, and regularly tested people working in these homes and in hospitals to prevent contagion by those who are infected without symptoms.

    There will probably be some important lessons from this pandemic, such as prepare with protocols and plan production/procurement of essential medical goods and tests as early as possible.

  5. #170
    Super MURCer UtwigMU's Avatar
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    We're on same trajectory as Germany and while left wing government and our CDC equivalent were saying it's just a flu, people returning from holiday in Italy can go work if they have no symptoms, people took it seriously, especially near border where they speak Italian and follow Italian media. There was 70% less people downtown and 90% less store traffic before any official lockdown.

    Once right-wing government was sworn in they listened to non CDC medical experts (PM's wife is a doctor) they got protective gear in time (countries were aggressive, Israel sent Mossad to purchase masks and ventilator) for health, elderly homes, police. They also sent epidemiologists and hospital staff to elderly homes. 90% of elderly homes had no infections but in 3 places where infection spread they had highest concentration in country. Employees worked very hard in elderly homes following all procedures put in place.

    I think what Sweden is doing can work there as people trust institutions. In places like Italy and France people trust institutions less and are more creative with rules as rules are not always reasonable.
    Last edited by UtwigMU; 28th April 2020 at 16:01.

  6. #171
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    I'm seeing reports that 20-50% of fatal cases are elderly people in nursing & assisted living homes. This was the case in Detroit, the NW districts having a huge cluster of them. Once rapid tests were available up to 75% of the staffers tested positive.
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  7. #172
    Crabby Smurf Umfriend's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by dZeus View Post
    In France prior to the general confinement, the messages conveyed from medical experts and government officials was 'it's only a bad flu'. As a result, most of the general population didn't take it seriously, including a lot of elderly and those with underlying conditions.
    Oh, I can agree that almost all European governments missed the mark at the start. Shit happens. If someplace catches up very early then general confinement may be over the top (depending on how the other measures pan out). I assumed you were questioning current policies based on the current situation.
    Quote Originally Posted by dZeus View Post
    There will probably be some important lessons from this pandemic, such as prepare with protocols and plan production/procurement of essential medical goods and tests as early as possible.
    I think many lessons will be learned. Not only with respect to how to deal with pandemics, including guarding for early warnings and how to cope but also for enterprise. All are looking to stay or regain productiveness and we learn to adept to (and possibly take advantage of) new conditions.

    Quote Originally Posted by UtwigMU View Post
    I think what Sweden is doing can work there as people trust institutions. In places like Italy and France people trust institutions less and are more creative with rules as rules are not always reasonable.
    This. Same goes for Germany and the Netherlands: Trust in institutions (even though eroded quite a bit the last 15 years but not so much that no one remembers) is crucially important. Also, Sweden is sparsely populated and, apparently, they are socially distant anyway. In the US, I think, institutional trust is at an all time low and sofar it is not improving.

    Quote Originally Posted by Dr Mordrid View Post
    I'm seeing reports that 20-50% of fatal cases are elderly people in nursing & assisted living homes. This was the case in Detroit, the NW districts having a huge cluster of them. Once rapid tests were available up to 75% of the staffers tested positive.
    Yes, as far as I can see, aside from mass manifestations / protests / soccer matches, church events etc, many (most) infections were actually gotten at GPs, hospitals and nursing homes. In our, the Dutch, case, it was not only being late to wake up, it was also a severe lack of safety protocols and materials.

    Our knowledge will only grow over time but we are getting better everyday. For instance on the comparison between Covid and Flu. In the US, the CFR of flu is around 0.14% (2017-2018). With Covid is seems to be 0.5% (https://www.washingtonpost.com/healt...101_story.html). Say 3 times as high. However, given no vaccines, no immunity, the infection rate, without measures, would be much much higher. A 12x multiple in deaths isn't hard to get at. And that is if the health system could cope / provide reasonable care.

    Could we have done way better and possible avoided general confinement (which we do not have in the US I think, nor in that many EU countries)? I think so, but that ship sailed somewhere in January.

    Edit: One thing that would have made Covid harder to deal with is the asymptomatic spread for days / weeks. I don't think that happens often with flu and I don;t think that was ever forseen (so would not have been taken into account in reasonable proactive policies / protocols).
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  8. #173
    Moderator dZeus's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Umfriend View Post
    Oh, I can agree that almost all European governments missed the mark at the start. Shit happens. If someplace catches up very early then general confinement may be over the top (depending on how the other measures pan out). I assumed you were questioning current policies based on the current situation.
    My call for deconfinement of the general population except for the elderly and with underlying conditions holds for the current situation. Figures released so far show acceptable risks for the <50 age cohort without underlying conditions.
    What's important that protocols are put in place for the elderly and for hospitals (e.g. have a dedicated hospital and staff for corona patients, regularly test all personnel in healthcare, care elderly and anyone else that has interactions with people that are at risk, etc.).

    I still don't see this happening, or much too slowly. General confinement has as a cost the destruction of the entire economy, and is not a solution (but rather leads to far greater problems if this is done for too long).

  9. #174
    Super MURCer Evildead666's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by dZeus View Post
    My call for deconfinement of the general population except for the elderly and with underlying conditions holds for the current situation. Figures released so far show acceptable risks for the <50 age cohort without underlying conditions.
    What's important that protocols are put in place for the elderly and for hospitals (e.g. have a dedicated hospital and staff for corona patients, regularly test all personnel in healthcare, care elderly and anyone else that has interactions with people that are at risk, etc.).

    I still don't see this happening, or much too slowly. General confinement has as a cost the destruction of the entire economy, and is not a solution (but rather leads to far greater problems if this is done for too long).
    There is no acceptable deconfinement for a disease we still don't know a lot about.

    You can't just 'hope for the best'.

    We should have been social distancing from the very beginning, and using masks, from the very beginning, like most of Asia did.
    You can't isolate the Old and elderly, who is going to treat them, or look after them ? they are not old people, and we can't confine them as well, they have lives too.
    Medical personnel can't be confined as well, which is what you would have to do if you decide to confine only the elderly.

    This is so contagious, it has to be controlled by a general lockdown, because we are collectively too stupid to respect social distancing properly, and wear and use masks properly. The 1-10% of twats ruin it for the other 90%.

    It will take months to get more information, and even longer to get all the info we need to understand what it is, and what to do properly in the future.
    This can't be generally compared to the Flu, because it isn't the Flu, its a Novel Coronavirus.

    The Economy was going to tank anyway, it was built on Bullsh!t. Fiat money, being printed into oblivion.
    We can't just go back to how it was before, because that won't be possible for quite some time.
    Governments, and people, don't want all their stuff made elsewhere anymore, at the risk of it being unavailable again, or restricted because of some other countries 'priorities'.

    Let it fall, and then rebuild, it's not going to kill us.
    The 1% who have hoarded Fiat money, and who controlled most of the previous world, will try to make it look like it will, but it won't.
    Farmers will be paid what they are really worth for their food, and so will others.

    Right now people are figuring out "what can I do without" and it turns out, quite a lot, except food and drink, and entertainment. But it doesn't have to come at such a huge cost as before.

    If we can't get to 100% recycling, we'll never leave this planet, ever.
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  10. #175
    Crabby Smurf Umfriend's Avatar
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    Even if we close up for three months, that does not "destroy" the "entire" economy. I prefer numbers, such as, it would lower GDP by x% in 2020, y% in 2019 etc.

    What figures are you referring to? And do you care about CFR / IFR only or about ICU-need as well? Many that come out of IC, especially if they have been on ventilators, require a long time for recovery once out of IC (and not dead).

    And when you call for deconfinement, I assume that entails wearing masks in public, keep 1.5m distance? How about public transport? You feel we should fly again? Restaurants etc?
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  11. #176
    Super MURCer UtwigMU's Avatar
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    End of movement limitations to local community for us.

    Leftists: right wing capitalists are ruining culture with lockdown.
    Government: Museums, galleries, libraries can open tomorrow.
    Libraries, museums: We can't open, we're not ready yet. We don't have staff and procedures.

    We have only around 300-400 cases with +2 to 3 new cases in general population per day.

  12. #177
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    I got word from work that I'll be working from home for quite some time.

    And it got me thinking about everything all of you guys are all saying.

    I don't think our old world is ever coming back.

    Made me think about a movie I saw a few days ago and I saw a ton of people walking on the streets and I thought to myself, this is an old movie because we can't do that now.

    It was released a few months ago.

    Nowadays, people walk around acting all panicky and paranoid posting anything on social media about what they saw outside.

    As for me, I just try and practice martial arts. I don't care what anyone thinks or writes on those social medias. I just practice on my front lawn, while watching my kids play.

    When I happen to practice kobudo though, sometimes it turns into kumite. It's fun with my older son because we studied martial arts together but I really need to polish my reflexes when it comes to defending myself against my youngest. His range and his size is either shin or groin. I really need to lower my dachi.
    This is the way.

  13. #178
    Moderator VJ's Avatar
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    I don't have the feeling here that people behave panicky... cautious yes... but everyone is nicely behaving better than regulations require.

    The lockdown here will be eased from Monday, even though there is no clear drop in cases. Most likely it is driven by economic reasons. It could be interesting to see what it will change in the streets, as people were much more isolating than required. My guess is that they do not trust the healthcare system, so any effort to stay away from needing them is worth it. But if that is the case, then easing the lockdown should not create such a visibile difference. Let's see on Monday... (we are still to work remotely till 15th of May)
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  14. #179
    Serial Murcerer ZokesPro's Avatar
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    People follow the rules here as well, but there's always the odd person every now and then that just freaks out a bit angry about all the new rules.
    This is the way.

  15. #180
    Moderator dZeus's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Evildead666 View Post
    There is no acceptable deconfinement for a disease we still don't know a lot about.

    You can't just 'hope for the best'.

    We should have been social distancing from the very beginning, and using masks, from the very beginning, like most of Asia did.
    You can't isolate the Old and elderly, who is going to treat them, or look after them ? they are not old people, and we can't confine them as well, they have lives too.
    Medical personnel can't be confined as well, which is what you would have to do if you decide to confine only the elderly.

    This is so contagious, it has to be controlled by a general lockdown, because we are collectively too stupid to respect social distancing properly, and wear and use masks properly. The 1-10% of twats ruin it for the other 90%.

    It will take months to get more information, and even longer to get all the info we need to understand what it is, and what to do properly in the future.
    This can't be generally compared to the Flu, because it isn't the Flu, its a Novel Coronavirus.

    The Economy was going to tank anyway, it was built on Bullsh!t. Fiat money, being printed into oblivion.
    We can't just go back to how it was before, because that won't be possible for quite some time.
    Governments, and people, don't want all their stuff made elsewhere anymore, at the risk of it being unavailable again, or restricted because of some other countries 'priorities'.

    Let it fall, and then rebuild, it's not going to kill us.
    The 1% who have hoarded Fiat money, and who controlled most of the previous world, will try to make it look like it will, but it won't.
    Farmers will be paid what they are really worth for their food, and so will others.

    Right now people are figuring out "what can I do without" and it turns out, quite a lot, except food and drink, and entertainment. But it doesn't have to come at such a huge cost as before.

    If we can't get to 100% recycling, we'll never leave this planet, ever.
    Just because we don't know much about Covid-19, doesn't mean that general containment will be the best strategy.
    There are many downsides to containment - aside from tanking the economy: People are only getting a fraction of their normal physical activity, drinking and eating more. Maybe I'm mistaken but isn't having overweight a risk factor for Covid-19? Drinking too much alcohol will badly affect the immune system as well. As does getting not enough sleep because of lack of work rhythm. With children this effect compounds, as they also need a rhythm and lack of enough stimulation will make them less tired in the evenings.

    My point being, containment is an overly simplistic response with a lot of unintended/unforeseen consequences to a difficult problem that should be tackled on all its facets - i.e. a tailored approach.

    Note that Sweden's neighboring countries were condemning it's non-confinement policy as a disaster in the making and promptly closed their borders with it. So much for that.
    Of course you can say it's 'because they already perform social distancing', but you don't know whether that's the main reason or merely reflecting the natural progress of Covid infections through society.

    Although there is no absolute proof yet if recovery from covid will protect from reinfection, and if yes for how long, it is standard medical practice to assume it does and to plan accordingly. General confinement hinders attempts at herd immunity in the best case, and in the worst case scenario will lead to many people getting reinfected once confinement ends after they lost their temporary immunity.
    Last edited by dZeus; 2nd May 2020 at 09:44.

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