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Thread: WTF :2019-nCoV NovaCoronaVirus Thread

  1. #271
    Moderator Dr Mordrid's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Umfriend View Post
    >
    From the NYT article quoted above:
    Sure theres a fire in the kitchen, but go ahead and put that 5 gallon gas can in the mud room anyhow
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    Crabby Smurf Umfriend's Avatar
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    With that kind of argument, I'm not surprised Whitmer and Cuomo have high approval ratings.
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  3. #273
    Moderator Dr Mordrid's Avatar
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    On the [non]-compliance front,

    Every year there's a big classic/custom car event called the Detroit Woodward Ave. Dream Cruise, and smaller similar events throughout SE MI. The immediate world shows up (including international tourists) to cruise in their cars, classic/custom or not, or watch.

    So this year, at the request of our Gov., the organizers put off the event because of CoVid-19. So did most other events. This is how much good it did,

    "I've never seen it this packed out here, ever..."
    Last edited by Dr Mordrid; 16th August 2020 at 12:12.
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  4. #274
    Crabby Smurf Umfriend's Avatar
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    Seems like a distanced event so might be OK. Different from Sturgis, no?

    Here we're not doing great. Contact tracing is out in a few "big" cities due to lack of personnel and rising number of cases. Most infections appear to occur at family gatherings and parties and among the young adults (still). But maybe in September it'll miraculously go away.

    Edit: Positive testing rate is now at 3.6%, at was around or below 1% for 6 weeks. Hospitalizations are still very low, which is good, but ppl forget how fast we moved from 7 ICU to 1,000 ICU (and our total capacity is about 1,500).
    Last edited by Umfriend; 17th August 2020 at 00:22.
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  5. #275
    Moderator dZeus's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Umfriend View Post
    Seems like a distanced event so might be OK. Different from Sturgis, no?

    Here we're not doing great. Contact tracing is out in a few "big" cities due to lack of personnel and rising number of cases. Most infections appear to occur at family gatherings and parties and among the young adults (still). But maybe in September it'll miraculously go away.

    Edit: Positive testing rate is now at 3.6%, at was around or below 1% for 6 weeks. Hospitalizations are still very low, which is good, but ppl forget how fast we moved from 7 ICU to 1,000 ICU (and our total capacity is about 1,500).
    The current trend seems to follow the 'Swedish model', since teenagers and young adults have a very low risk of complications.
    What really matters now is how well the at-risk population (elderly and with underlying health issues) are isolated, as well as health care workers.

    imo the government should perform regular periodic testing of all personnel in elderly & health care sectors, and set up some general rules to help isolate the at-risk population from others. For example, they could have a 'elderly shopping hour' before 9am to allow the at-risk to do their grocery shopping without getting unnecessary exposure to youngsters.

  6. #276
    Super MURCer UtwigMU's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by dZeus View Post
    The current trend seems to follow the 'Swedish model', since teenagers and young adults have a very low risk of complications.
    What really matters now is how well the at-risk population (elderly and with underlying health issues) are isolated, as well as health care workers.

    imo the government should perform regular periodic testing of all personnel in elderly & health care sectors, and set up some general rules to help isolate the at-risk population from others. For example, they could have a 'elderly shopping hour' before 9am to allow the at-risk to do their grocery shopping without getting unnecessary exposure to youngsters.
    We had the elderly shopping hour until 9am and elders were not that happy.

  7. #277
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    Quote Originally Posted by dZeus View Post
    The current trend seems to follow the 'Swedish model'
    Where? It certainly is not stated policy in the Netherlands.
    What really matters now is how well the at-risk population (elderly and with underlying health issues) are isolated, as well as health care workers.

    imo the government should perform regular periodic testing of all personnel in elderly & health care sectors, and set up some general rules to help isolate the at-risk population from others. For example, they could have a 'elderly shopping hour' before 9am to allow the at-risk to do their grocery shopping without getting unnecessary exposure to youngsters.
    But that won't cut it because we have many elderly living independently who will be in contact with their 45yo children en 20yo grandchildren. I think Florida is a good example where they tried something like that. If you have community spread, there is, I believe, simply no reasonable way to keep elderly/at-risk people isolated/safe. And then, even if <50yo typically don't die, they do end up at ICU/hospitals and/or have long recovery times as well.
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  8. #278
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    Quote Originally Posted by Umfriend View Post
    Where? It certainly is not stated policy in the Netherlands.
    Well I certainly don't see much in terms of attempts to reduce contagion between <45yo other than 'keeping distance', which imo translates into effectively following the Swedish model.

    Quote Originally Posted by Umfriend View Post
    But that won't cut it because we have many elderly living independently who will be in contact with their 45yo children en 20yo grandchildren. I think Florida is a good example where they tried something like that. If you have community spread, there is, I believe, simply no reasonable way to keep elderly/at-risk people isolated/safe. And then, even if <50yo typically don't die, they do end up at ICU/hospitals and/or have long recovery times as well.
    Covid-19 ICU rates in NL are very low atm, so I don't agree that a substantial amount of <45yo end up in ICU. In the end, what matters is isolation of the Covid-19 susceptible part of the population. Another society-wide lockdown is not feasible, if we look at the economic impact of the first lockdown in the first half of the year.

  9. #279
    Crabby Smurf Umfriend's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by dZeus View Post
    Well I certainly don't see much in terms of attempts to reduce contagion between <45yo other than 'keeping distance', which imo translates into effectively following the Swedish model.
    There are still quite a few restrictions in place, especially for restaurants, bars, cinemas, festivals etc. It may be that they have similar rules in Sweden. The big difference though, IMHO, is that we scaled down the restrictions as a result of having lowered cases, infection rates to very very low levels. If they rise, at some point restrictions will become more severe. I don't see that as following the Swedish model at all, even if, by happenstance, our current restrictions are similar.
    Covid-19 ICU rates in NL are very low atm, so I don't agree that a substantial amount of <45yo end up in ICU. In the end, what matters is isolation of the Covid-19 susceptible part of the population. Another society-wide lockdown is not feasible, if we look at the economic impact of the first lockdown in the first half of the year.
    I don't think I said "substantial" but over 10% of all Covid-ICU cases were people younger than 50yo. Moreover, you don't need to end up at a ICU to have long recovery times or, for now, lasting effects on your health.

    No one wants a lockdown (except for Soros, Gates, the NWO and the globalists of course :d). If people behave sensibly, there won't be a need either.

    So how would isolation of susceptible people work in practice, say, elderly in nursing or elderly homes or living independently?
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  10. #280
    Moderator Dr Mordrid's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Umfriend View Post
    >
    So how would isolation of susceptible people work in practice, say, elderly in nursing or elderly homes or living independently?
    Here there's a trifurcation between home, independent living (senior apartments), and assisted living/nursing homes/long term care.

    Home is like everyone else, seniors caring for themselves & doing their thing.

    Independent living apartments have restricted access; residents, home health care personnel, staff and emergency care. Social activities suspended, and limited access to staff. Mail & packages by no-touch delivery.

    In nursing homes & long term care isolation has, unfortunately, been not well done. Limited to no visitation is common, but 5 states implemented using nursing homes to care for recovering CoVid-19 patients with disasterous results.

    The high fatalities in nursing and long term care caused such a blowup in NY the governor discontinued the policy. In MI, Gov. Whitmer is stuck on stupid and refuses to change the policy.

    Two weeks ago the MI state legislature passed legislation to end Gov. Whitmef's nursing home policy with bi-partisan support; 1/3 of the Democratic Caucus crossing over to pass the bill. Gov. Whitmer stupidly vetoed it.

    The blowback was immediate.

    There is now a Citizens Petition drive to repeal the 1945 law which allows her to implement such policies unilaterally. If it gets enough signatures, which it will, the legislature will vote to repeal the law. Gov. Whitmer, per the State Constitution, does not have the power to veto this change.

    Once repealed any continuance of emergency powers and policies set therein will be done under the 1976 law Gov. Whitmer has been ignoring; extending the emergency must be approved by the legislature every 28 days, and any policies like her nursing home policy would be open to review and defunding.
    Last edited by Dr Mordrid; 19th August 2020 at 14:06.
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  11. #281
    Crabby Smurf Umfriend's Avatar
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    LOL, so that does not answer my question at all.

    Anyway, it is the same accusation you leveled before here. I think it is worth while to really look at this but the presumption that Whitmers' decision was unreasonable is simply hard to defend when looking at the outcome by the numbers we know now. MI has a lower %age of LTC deaths than the US.
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  12. #282
    Moderator Dr Mordrid's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Umfriend View Post
    LOL, so that does not answer my question at all.

    Anyway, it is the same accusation you leveled before here. I think it is worth while to really look at this but the presumption that Whitmers' decision was unreasonable is simply hard to defend when looking at the outcome by the numbers we know now. MI has a lower %age of LTC deaths than the US.
    At least 1/3 of our deaths are in nursing homes or long term care. This is not a victory, here or in other states with similar numbers. Not enough was done to protect them, and then 5 state governors stupidly started admitting Typhoid Mary's carrying CoVid-19 into facilities which already had problems with infection control.

    Also, MI's 33% of total deaths is based on numbers released by the state (Whitmer) which are not accurate, they even admit to the undercount in fine print elsewhere. This was on full display in June when the CMS (Medicare/Medicaid) numbers were higher than the state numbers. They do the billing for these programs.

    Ex:

    June 4 CMS reported 2,297 MI nursing home deaths. At this time the state (Whitmer) was reporting just 1,505 deaths. Difference: 792 deaths. Further, the state (Whitmer) refused to release the numbers for nursing home staffers.

    https://www.freep.com/story/news/loc...us/3143936001/

    On July 27 MI was reporting "just" 2,000 deaths in nursing homes, still 297 below June's CMS numbers.

    https://www.bridgemi.com/michigan-go...omes-who-blame

    The MI nursing home numbers are being cooked. The legislature's been trying to get the raw data, but Whitmer refuses to give it - just the analysis.

    A bad enough stink that 1/3+ of the Dems in the legislature have turned against this misbegotten policy.
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  13. #283
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    https://www.fda.gov/news-events/pres...d-19-treatment

    For Immediate Release:

    August 23, 2020

    Today, the U.S. Food and Drug Administration issued an emergency use authorization (EUA) for investigational convalescent plasma for the treatment of COVID-19 in hospitalized patients as part of the agency’s ongoing efforts to fight COVID-19. Based on scientific evidence available, the FDA concluded, as outlined in its*decision memorandum, this product may be effective in treating COVID-19 and that the known and potential benefits of the product outweigh the known and potential risks of the product.

    Today’s action follows the FDA’s extensive review of the science and data generated over the past several months stemming from efforts to facilitate emergency access to convalescent plasma for patients as clinical trials to definitively demonstrate safety and efficacy remain ongoing.

    The EUA authorizes the distribution of COVID-19 convalescent plasma in the U.S. and its administration by health care providers, as appropriate, to treat suspected or laboratory-confirmed COVID-19 in hospitalized patients with COVID-19.
    >
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  14. #284
    Crabby Smurf Umfriend's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Dr Mordrid View Post
    At least 1/3 [...] this misbegotten policy.
    Again, I am not saying Whitmer, or Cuomo for that matter, implemented the right or, at the time, reasonable policies. I am saying that, based on what we know now, it may well be that they did. It is a tragedy that 2K or 4K elderly passed away early due to Covid-19. I just find it questionable whether it could have been significantly different with other reasonable policies. It seems to me that given the development of cases in other states, e.g., Florida, shows that it is simply very hard to control infections at such locations when there is community spread.

    Now I am all for review of past decisions/policies because there may be a lot of important lessons to be learned. Early political hit-jobs I am not that much a fan of.
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    The Dept. of Justice Civil Rights Division is stepping into the nursing homes being used for CoVid-19 patients issue, "requesting" the data from Michigan (32% of deaths), Pennsylvania (67% of deaths), New York (20% of deaths), and New Jersey (43% of deaths).

    (percentages: New York Times, but MI is likely an undercount)

    https://www.detroitnews.com/story/ne...an/5635375002/

    Department of Justice seeks COVID-19 data on Michigan nursing home deaths

    Lansing — The U.S. Department of Justice said Wednesday it is seeking "COVID-19 data" from the governors of Michigan and three other states as it examines nursing home orders during the pandemic that "may have resulted in the deaths of thousands of elderly nursing home residents."

    The department's Civil Rights Division is evaluating whether to launch investigations under the Civil Rights of Institutionalized Persons Act, which protects the rights of persons in state-run nursing homes, a press release said.

    "Protecting the rights of some of society’s most vulnerable members, including elderly nursing home residents, is one of our country’s most important obligations,” said Eric Dreiband, assistant attorney general for Civil Rights Division. “We must ensure they are adequately cared for with dignity and respect and not unnecessarily put at risk.”
    >
    Last edited by Dr Mordrid; 26th August 2020 at 14:36.
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