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Thread: WTF :2019-nCoV NovaCoronaVirus Thread

  1. #316
    Super MURCer UtwigMU's Avatar
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    It will be OK, it will be a reprise of spring with some lockdown and easing. You can always drive across Germany and stay in 2-week quarantine if you need to go see them urgently.

  2. #317
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    Yes... But it is a lot for a one day drive, and spending the night somewhere (which ideally would be Germany) may be an issue.
    And then there is the case if they would get stuck in quarantine...

    More thinking about non-urgent visits... It almost seems like there will not be a good time anytime soon...
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  3. #318
    Super MURCer UtwigMU's Avatar
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    I remember when once I needed to drive 4 Bosnian welders from NL to Slovenia. I started drive in the evening in Bruxelles and picked them nearby in Netherlands. While still on Ductch local roads I picked some local pop radio station. Half an hour into the drive they wanted some to them "normal" CD.

    I drove 180km/h (110mph) through entire Germany non-stop until 6am just for the shitty music to end sooner.

    Edit: looks like 12h drive, doable in a day (I drove SI-NL once in one leg from 8am to 8pm). Or you can sleep in Poland just before German border and then start the drive rested in morning.

    My friend who lives and works in Bruxelles is coming to Slovenia for a couple of weeks. They will rent instead of staying with parents.
    Last edited by UtwigMU; 12th October 2020 at 06:56.

  4. #319
    Super MURCer UtwigMU's Avatar
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    So how will this unravel? I read reports which are in line with early reports from March that people can contract Covid again after being infection free.

    The virus is mutating so efficient vaccine will probably not be available soon. It's more like flu vaccine which only inoculates against this year's predicted strains. So while some countries my get virus under control with lockdowns and contact tracing, virus will live in less disciplined parts. Migrant situation shows borders cannot really be controlled. Even North Korea cannot control borders much less any other country. So Corona will be around for a few years if not decades or permanently.

    So how much strain can economies, governments and international constellations take? Ex-Soviet has riots. Once a country goes in instability it drags supply chains, markets, neighbors closer to instability.

  5. #320
    Moderator Dr Mordrid's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by UtwigMU View Post
    So how will this unravel? I read reports which are in line with early reports from March that people can contract Covid again after being infection free.

    The virus is mutating so efficient vaccine will probably not be available soon. It's more like flu vaccine which only inoculates against this year's predicted strains.
    >
    It depends on what part of the virus mutates, most vaccines (including the trial I'm in) are attacking the spike protein. Changes elsewhere may not impact their effectiveness. There's also T-cell immunity which is more general.

    Here there's also a lot of research into treatments, such as the monoclonal antibody treatment Trump received and harvested animal antibodies (llama, bovine) and "plantibodies" harvested from engineered tobacco plants. Our docs (Henry Ford) are pushing megadoses of vitamin D (patients with low levels do worse).
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  6. #321
    Super MURCer UtwigMU's Avatar
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    Most of central country where my parents live but not where I live will get lockdown on friday.

    Restaurants, schools, gyms closed, no non-work travel between regions, etc... Epidemic not declared but it can / will likely be declared.

  7. #322
    Super MURCer UtwigMU's Avatar
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    Plague is on again, epidemics declared, no travel between regions (~100k people bigger than community with 20k people), curfew and all.

  8. #323
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    Quote Originally Posted by dZeus View Post
    from how I've understood 'incidence per 100K', an incidence of 255 per 100000 means that in the metropolitan area where I live (about 1.4M population), there have been 3570 positive daily tests on average over the past 7 days.
    incidence in the metropolitan area of my city has now risen to over 600 per 100K. ICUs are now nearing saturation or already are above capacity.
    I'm guessing a second drastic lock-down is only 7-14 days away.

    Perhaps local/national government is counting on decreased mobility due to the start of a 2-week school holiday this week, which could relieve pressure temporarily.

  9. #324
    Moderator Dr Mordrid's Avatar
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    Wayne County (Detroit, Dearborn & south + western suburbs) is about 1.8 million people. Yesterday we logged 289 new cases. About 16.6/100k.

    Michigan's current 'hot spot' (cases/100k) are counties in the western upper peninsula, notably Delta County (2,800/100k, Escanaba area). Population: ~35,000.
    Last edited by Dr Mordrid; 20th October 2020 at 16:58.
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  10. #325
    Crabby Smurf Umfriend's Avatar
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    I am not even sure what kind of restrictions apply exactly currently. We're not where we were in March but I guess we're getting close. Restaurants, bars etc. are closed.
    We're at 47 positive tests/100k a day. Hospitals are getting busy and other care is being downscaled, ICUs are getting busier but not at March/April levels yet.
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  11. #326
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    Belgium closed all restaurants, bars, ... for 1 month and prohibited sales for alcohol after 20.00 (side-effect: some shops close at 20.00 in stead of at 21.00). Telework is required when possible. Masks are almost everywhere mandatory. Higher eduction has to by full remote.

    Poland started reserving shopping hours exclusive for seniors (60+, 10.00-12.00). Stronger restrictions on how many people can be in restaurants and bars. Telework when possible. They created a field hospital for covid in the national stadion on Warsaw (initially 800 beds). There is talk about adding extra holidays around 01/11, as people tend to really go to cemeteries and they do not want to close them (after the issue it gave in March: the head of the ruling party went to a cemetery when no-one else could, this triggered comments, a song about it that made it to number 1, leading to it being removed from the list, followed by protests regarding censorship and quite some backlash - they want to avoid this a second time).
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  12. #327
    Moderator Dr Mordrid's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by VJ View Post
    >
    They created a field hospital for covid in the national stadion on Warsaw (initially 800 beds).
    >
    The US Army Corps of Engineers created 2500-3000 field hospital beds around Detroit, complete with negative pressure ventilation, UV-C & HEPA HVAC systems, isolation beds ventilators, etc.

    Governor Dimwit barely used them, no more than 50-60 filled beds. Instead she shuffled patients into nursing homes & long term care facilities, which didn't go well. Of course the state death count in these places is far lower than the Medicare/Medicaid count by nearly half, M/M being who pays the bills.
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  13. #328
    Moderator Dr Mordrid's Avatar
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    https://www.cnbc.com/2020/10/22/fda-...treatment.html

    FDA approves Gilead’s remdesivir as coronavirus treatment

    The Food and Drug Administration on Thursday approved Gilead Sciences’ antiviral drug remdesivir as a treatment for the coronavirus.

    In May, the FDA granted the drug an emergency use authorization, allowing hospitals and doctors to use it on patients hospitalized with the disease even though the medication had not been formally approved by the agency. The intravenous drug has helped shorten the recovery time of some hospitalized Covid-19 patients. It was one of the drugs used to treat President Donald Trump, who tested positive for the virus earlier this month.

    The drug will be used for Covid-19 patients at least 12 years old and requiring hospitalization, Gilead said. Remdesivir is now the first and only fully approved treatment in the U.S. for Covid-19, which has infected more than 41.3 million people worldwide and killed more than 1 million, according to data compiled by Johns Hopkins University.
    >
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  14. #329
    Super MURCer UtwigMU's Avatar
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    Everything but food and gardening stores is closed for "at least" a week.

    1-2% population infected, covid intensive cares close to full, 14-day incidence 546/100k

  15. #330
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    Didn't the President declare the Pandemic was over in the US today? Think it was on /.
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