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Thread: WTF :2019-nCoV NovaCoronaVirus Thread

  1. #466
    Super MURCer UtwigMU's Avatar
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    I'm not anti vax a priori. In January friends were like: vaccine will come, by summer everything will be back to normal. I have more of IT mindset: Don't put untested things in production, so I said, by August/September timeframe we should know whether vaccines work and have any significant side effects.

    Since vaccine doesn't prevent getting infected:
    vaxxed + Covid = risk of potential vax side effects which are unknown but 2 vaccines were banned and 2 people officially died + risk of Covid complications
    no vax + Covid = only risk of Covid complications. For people in my age group around me risk is very low
    no vax + no Covid = OK but this scenario is extremely unlikely. Like dZeus I too think at some point everyone will get Covid.

    The further problem I have is that countries have ordered vaccines for 2022 and 2023, in Slovenia Novartis will produce vaccines, etc... The plan of governments is to reach X% vaccinated in entire population, in Slovenia the goal is 70%. After that they will revoke green passes and introduce boosters (service packs).

    The whole system is designed so as to coerce people into vaccination which doesn't prevent spread of Covid. With no testing for vaccinated and open doors it actually facilitates spread. As per data we have, it reduces risks of hospitalization and ICU. The further problem with this is totalitarian undertones. Ihre Papiere bitte for entering gas station which is very low risk for Covid spreads. I remember in 90s as a teenager I walked in gas station at 2am and bought 2 litres of wine and cigarettes. Now I get asked for Covid test.

    Like with taking off shoes and throwing away water on airports 20 years after 9/11 I believe mandatory app swipes for accessing services won't go away.

    And if we don't say NO to this now, we have set a precedent where government can mandate health procedures and discriminate based on health status. Remember Aids and how we were not supposed to discriminate. Imagine if people would have to produce Aids tests to enter businesses and work. And while less virulent, Aids deaths are around ~100 per 1M while Covid deaths for people under 65 are around ~150. per 1M.
    Last edited by UtwigMU; 29th October 2021 at 04:15.

  2. #467
    Crabby Smurf Umfriend's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by UtwigMU View Post
    I'm not anti vax a priori. In January friends were like: vaccine will come, by summer everything will be back to normal. I have more of IT mindset: Don't put untested things in production
    Were tested. Still being tested, constant evaluation, you know, like a sysadmin checking reglarly?
    , so I said, by August/September timeframe we should know whether vaccines work and have any significant side effects.
    Done. Hardly any.
    Since vaccine doesn't prevent getting infected:
    The jury is still out on whether vaccines prevent some/many infections though, even with Delta.
    vaxxed + Covid = risk of potential vax side effects which are unknown but 2 vaccines were banned and 2 people officially died + risk of Covid complications
    no vax + Covid = only risk of Covid complications. For people in my age group around me risk is very low
    But the risk of Covid complications is vastly different between the two scenarios.
    no vax + no Covid = OK but this scenario is extremely unlikely. Like dZeus I too think at some point everyone will get Covid.
    Yeah, we can ignore this case.

    The further problem I have is that countries have ordered vaccines for 2022 and 2023, in Slovenia Novartis will produce vaccines, etc... The plan of governments is to reach X% vaccinated in entire population, in Slovenia the goal is 70%. After that they will revoke green passes and introduce boosters (service packs).

    The whole system is designed so as to coerce people into vaccination which doesn't prevent spread of Covid. With no testing for vaccinated and open doors it actually facilitates spread. As per data we have, it reduces risks of hospitalization and ICU. The further problem with this is totalitarian undertones. Ihre Papiere bitte for entering gas station which is very low risk for Covid spreads. I remember in 90s as a teenager I walked in gas station at 2am and bought 2 litres of wine and cigarettes. Now I get asked for Covid test.

    Like with taking off shoes and throwing away water on airports 20 years after 9/11 I believe mandatory app swipes for accessing services won't go away.

    And if we don't say NO to this now, we have set a precedent where government can mandate health procedures and discriminate based on health status.
    Sorry but this, to me, becomes consparacy-ish. "designed", "coerce", "precedent".
    Remember Aids and how we were not supposed to discriminate. Imagine if people would have to produce Aids tests to enter businesses and work. And while less virulent, Aids deaths are around ~100 per 1M while Covid deaths for people under 65 are around ~150. per 1M.
    Oh, FCOL. Sure, work the numbers by excluding 65+ with Covid. I got another for you. Aids deaths are around 1 per 1M for people that have had no sex. Dúh. And even then, it's 150% and, in case of Covid, very easy to bring down!. HIV is difficult to transmit and very behaviorally dependent. No chance in hell that if we could get HIV from someones sneezing, we'd be treating HIV the way we do.

    Edit: Also, we have limited the number of covid-deaths with all sorts of measures/limitations, luckily. If we hadn't, we'd have had way more deaths.
    Last edited by Umfriend; 29th October 2021 at 05:15.
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  3. #468
    Super MURCer UtwigMU's Avatar
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    1 year of vaccines real world evaluation has lead to:
    18 countries banning Astra Zeneca
    Several countries banning or restricting J&J/Jannssen
    Several countries restricting Moderna, Iceland banned Moderna

    If we're trying to stop Covid we should:
    - test everyone (vaxxed and unvaxxed)
    - make testing free
    - increase hospital capacity - we had 2 years. Main bottleneck in capacity is nurses, governments can hire more nurses with all the money they borrowed

    If we're trying to play marketing for Pfizer (other vaccines have been discredited by being banned) then we can:
    - not test vaxxed
    - make life difficult for unvaxxed
    - revoke vaxxed status every 6 months so that they vaxx with Pfizer shot paid for by taxpayers.

    Someone who was a good boy and got vaxxed so he can continue work and life, who then got covid and will have to get booster next year will not be pleased.
    Last edited by UtwigMU; 29th October 2021 at 08:50.

  4. #469
    Moderator dZeus's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by UtwigMU View Post
    1 year of vaccines real world evaluation has lead to:
    18 countries banning Astra Zeneca
    Several countries banning or restricting J&J/Jannssen
    Several countries restricting Moderna, Iceland banned Moderna

    If we're trying to stop Covid we should:
    - test everyone (vaxxed and unvaxxed)
    - make testing free
    - increase hospital capacity - we had 2 years. Main bottleneck in capacity is nurses, governments can hire more nurses with all the money they borrowed

    If we're trying to play marketing for Pfizer (other vaccines have been discredited by being banned) then we can:
    - not test vaxxed
    - make life difficult for unvaxxed
    - revoke vaxxed status every 6 months so that they vaxx with Pfizer shot paid for by taxpayers.

    Someone who was a good boy and got vaxxed so he can continue work and life, who then got covid and will have to get booster next year will not be pleased.
    From my perspective, the banning of the AstraZeneca covid jab was a pure political decision that has damaged the trust in public health measures in the EU. I have not seen any statistics that would warrant not using the jab vs. no or greatly delayed vaccination.

  5. #470
    Moderator dZeus's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Umfriend View Post
    Even though vaccinated become infected and spread, they do so for a shorter time at the least, perhaps (significantly) less often as well (conflicting research in e.g. UK and the Netherlands) . I don't see why we should invest in more ICU capacity when the need for it is manageable through vaccination. Their occupancy of ICU actually represents a real danger to others. Increasing ICU capacity isn't that easy to do quickly either.

    I think identifiable at risk people are aware already but in reality, we're all at risk.
    Vaccinated people have a reduced risk of getting infected that diminishes relatively quickly, and there are studies showing that viral shedding is about equal between unvaccinated and vaccinated infected individuals.

    However, since measures taken to coerce vaccination discriminate for access to restricted locations based on either vaccination or tested-negative status for covid, this leads to a great confusion where people mistakenly believe that vaccinated individuals don't contribute to spread. The result will be (is?) a lot of spread that would have been avoidable of this discrimination did not exist and distancing and mask wearing mandates were still in effect.
    Here in France, mask wearing is still in effect inside venues (although some limited venues allow you to shed the mask when vaccinated) and covid numbers have only started to increase slowly the past week.

    As for ICU capacity: if you don't have any slack capacity to deal with a slight increase in the number of patients compared to the pre-covid situation, then there is an absolute lack of preparation for outbreak of any type of highly infectuous disease needing ICU treatment, fpr which there is no treatment or vaccination. This doesn't even require an enormous amount of beds per unit of population (like Germany), but at least more than countries that run the ICU at the absolute leanest level possible during pre-covid times.

  6. #471
    Crabby Smurf Umfriend's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by UtwigMU View Post
    1 year of vaccines real world evaluation has lead to:
    18 countries banning Astra Zeneca
    Several countries banning or restricting J&J/Jannssen
    Several countries restricting Moderna, Iceland banned Moderna
    All by virtue of having alternatives. Had any of these been the only vaccine, then they'd be used everywhere. And for good reason: The benefits outweigh the cost.
    If we're trying to stop Covid we should:
    - test everyone (vaxxed and unvaxxed)
    - make testing free
    - increase hospital capacity - we had 2 years. Main bottleneck in capacity is nurses, governments can hire more nurses with all the money they borrowed
    I agree that testing should be easy and free. But increasing hospital capacity isn't that easy. You actually need to train them. I don't know how it is elsewhere but in the Netherlands, sick leave rates are high, nurses leaving the profession is high, in fact, our actual ICU capacity is at its lowest since the start of the pandemic. And the capacity needed is high in that a normal ICU admittance is typically for a few days. Once you get to ICU for Covid, you're typically looking at 3-4 weeks(!).
    And when you suggest testing everyone, you mean like weekly + quarantine? That might make sense actually, not sure it'd be cheaper or less cumbersome than simply taking a few shots, but ok, perhaps.

    Side story: My wife went to the hospital today for an echo of her heart (all is well). She was like the ONLY person wearing a mask (which is non-obligatory in the NL expect for public transport). The doctor (who wore one as well) was so grateful because of this and did not understand why people, even in a hospital where covid patients are being treated, didn't. She is considering simply exiting the profession.

    If we're trying to play marketing for Pfizer (other vaccines have been discredited by being banned) then we can:
    - not test vaxxed
    - make life difficult for unvaxxed
    - revoke vaxxed status every 6 months so that they vaxx with Pfizer shot paid for by taxpayers.
    Yes, sure. We're doing this to make Pfizer rich. There is no other reasonable explanation. J&J is still being used. Moderna as well.

    Someone who was a good boy and got vaxxed so he can continue work and life, who then got covid and will have to get booster next year will not be pleased.
    I don't even know what this is about. As, if and when boostershots become available and assuming efficacy of a 2-shot regime drops significantly over time then, yes, at some stage a 2-shot recipient will and should be treated as a non-vaccinated person because their risk profile is the same.
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  7. #472
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    Quote Originally Posted by dZeus View Post
    Vaccinated people have a reduced risk of getting infected that diminishes relatively quickly, and there are studies showing that viral shedding is about equal between unvaccinated and vaccinated infected individuals.
    Which would be solved by booster shots.

    However, since measures taken to coerce vaccination discriminate for access to restricted locations based on either vaccination or tested-negative status for covid, this leads to a great confusion where people mistakenly believe that vaccinated individuals don't contribute to spread. The result will be (is?) a lot of spread that would have been avoidable of this discrimination did not exist and distancing and mask wearing mandates were still in effect.
    I have to agree with this. However, that does not mean we discriminate between vaccinated / unvaxxed. Just that the unvaxxed may have more restrictions than vaccinated.
    Here in France, mask wearing is still in effect inside venues (although some limited venues allow you to shed the mask when vaccinated) and covid numbers have only started to increase slowly the past week.
    Yeah, for one reason or another, we in the Netherlands really want to get back to pre-Covid normals. This is the second time we seem to fail this year.
    As for ICU capacity: if you don't have any slack capacity to deal with a slight increase in the number of patients compared to the pre-covid situation, then there is an absolute lack of preparation for outbreak of any type of highly infectuous disease needing ICU treatment, fpr which there is no treatment or vaccination. This doesn't even require an enormous amount of beds per unit of population (like Germany), but at least more than countries that run the ICU at the absolute leanest level possible during pre-covid times.
    Nice try, but Covid has never been a light increase in number of patients in the ICU. I think we had like 1100 ICU beds with a typical occupancy of like 400. Pre-covid. We could easily deal with an occupancy of 1,000 beds for a couple of days, weeks. And normally, ICU occupancy doesn't last long. But to have 1100 beds occupied, not so much by many more patients but by long-stay patients, for months on end, a year, two years? That is not a slight increase.
    Yes, we have a low number of ICU beds per capita. Maybe we should have had more per capita then Germany. It wouldn't have made much of a difference. It would also have had a cost, as always. Assuming (I take this as a given) that vaxxing is the cheapest way to deal with this pandemic, it is sensible public policy to madate vaxxing. I'm not advocating that but I do think it is alright to discriminate between vaxxed/non-vaxxed reasonably.
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  8. #473
    MURCer Belwarrior's Avatar
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    Haven't really been checking into MURC for a while now - popping in when i can.

    I just had my booster Moderna last week (28th October) here in Singapore. Vaccination is entirely voluntary of course but you cannot enter malls / dine out if unvaccinated, maximum group of two vaccinated for most things. And from 1st January 2022 cannot go to your workplace (forced to work from home) if not vaccinated.

    More than 80% of the population have been vaccinated but we actually have an uptrend in infections and deaths. So the vaccines (Pfizer/Moderna/SinoPharm) definitely doesn't prevent infections, a few colleagues who caught it suffered no complication, just rested at home till they recovered
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  9. #474
    Super MURCer UtwigMU's Avatar
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    We had government announce new measures due to spike in cases (almost same hospitalizations as this time last year, higher cases spike is because testing is mandatory and 20-30k 1-1.5% of population test any given day):
    Luckily we have elections next year and conservative government (some right wing people are not keen on vax, drop in support, we had big protests last month, some leftists are also not keen on vax but they will never vote right) so no vax mandate or lockdown.

    ID required on entry with 3g (tested, recovered, vaccinated) papers on entry
    12y+ need 3g (before 3g was mandatory for 15+)
    mandated lower price of tests (7 EUR instead of 10-12)
    schoolchildren now self test at school but government will provide free tests (before they could test at home but some people sold free tests given to children)
    higher salaries for nurses (many quit due to low salaries, overwork, doctors got raises and benefits last year but nurses were left out)
    bars, restaurants closed after 10pm, no discos, dancing
    distanced seating and FFP2 masks for seating inside theatres, etc...
    testing at work can continue to be done by workplace providing tests costing 2.5 EUR max (as it has been)
    work from home where possible

    So we have less crazy measures than neighboring Italy, Austria, Hungary, which is a good thing.
    Our advisory team and health minister wanted lockdown and some minister wanted vax mandate but fortunately government hasn't done it.

    Italy has mandatory testing in pharmacies, doctors for work, tests cost 15-25 EUR and employee needs to pay out of pocket
    Austria, Hungary now get vax mandate for work.

    Interest in vaccines is picking up (forcing people is counterprodcuctive), lockdown doesn't work, most spreads occur at work, family, school, last year's long lockdown hasn't stopped wave but was very bad for small business.
    30+% of infected and in intensive care are vaxed but only 3% in intensive care are recovered, recovery offers best protection.
    Last edited by UtwigMU; 5th November 2021 at 18:03.

  10. #475
    Crabby Smurf Umfriend's Avatar
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    Our government, who I thought did reasonably well, has failed us. They relaxed a lot of measures end of June with a huge spike as a result. We went from around 1K daily cases to 10K daily cases in 3 weeks. So measures were re-instituted and that helped as we quickly dropped to 2.5K-1.5K cases. We never got back to the June numbers. With autumn here and winter coming they though it would be sensible to relax measures again -> 10K cases within weeks, medical care is being postponed again, and measures taken now are mostly "strongly worded advice"...WTF.
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  11. #476
    Super MURCer UtwigMU's Avatar
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    From source of infection tracking according to our official data:
    37% family
    9% work
    6% school
    6% private gatherings
    35% unknown
    negligible for sports, prisons, shops, restaurants

    https://covid-19.sledilnik.org/embed.../chart/Sources

    90% of infections with known source occur in family, work, school and private gatherings which are not affected by measures.

    So measures such as lockdown, curfew, closure of shops and restaurants only affects small number of infections. Also Sweden which had recommendations had less deaths per capita than some countries with measures.

    Also here with everything open and 2g in effect (lax checking until it's been tightened this week) we have same numbers as we did last year with closed schools, curfew, limit of movement to commune, closed non-food shops and restaurants.
    Last edited by UtwigMU; 9th November 2021 at 05:05.

  12. #477
    Crabby Smurf Umfriend's Avatar
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    So how do we explain the two surges this year right after measures were relaxed?

    Have you considered that for the 35% family infections, at least one had to introduce it? So if measures help limiting introduction into families, we save about 4 subsequent infections. And on.
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  13. #478
    Moderator Dr Mordrid's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Umfriend View Post
    So how do we explain the two surges this year right after measures were relaxed?
    In large part, more infectious strains "in the wild."

    Have you considered that for the 35% family infections, at least one had to introduce it? So if measures help limiting introduction into families, we save about 4 subsequent infections. And on.
    No small number were introduced into locked down families by delivery people who were out in serious force. Even if vaccinated they can spread the Delta variant.
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  14. #479
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    Quote Originally Posted by Dr Mordrid View Post
    In large part, more infectious strains "in the wild."
    So you are suggesting non-delta strains hit the Netherlands for like 3-4 weeks in June and in November, coincidentally with the relaxation of limitations?
    No small number were introduced into locked down families by delivery people who were out in serious force. Even if vaccinated they can spread the Delta variant.
    Never heard that one before, got a link? Even if true, then that should be counted not as family but as work.
    Last edited by Umfriend; 10th November 2021 at 00:07.
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  15. #480
    Super MURCer UtwigMU's Avatar
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    Most common scenario is probably: infected at work > infects family members > children infect classmates > parents infect coworkers.
    Shutting down businesses is no go because it ruins economy, especially larger ones who have influence.
    Shutting down schools is no go because then employees need time off to take care of small children, it's illegal to leave kids under IIRC 10 alone and generally children/parents don't like zoom.

    Delivery people are either vaxxed or test every 2-3 days.

    Here during 1st wave people were really scared so there actually weren't many on streets, people were home for some weeks. All parking lots had happy hours, passed 5 cars on 100km trip. Now no one is scared of Corona - random people talking with masks under chin waiting for test results outside testing tent. Also telling people it will only be two weeks (we had one of longest locdowns in Europe last year) won't be taken lightly. People will continue to meet. Fear of loosing someone from circle of friends adds to importance of rare gatherings (birthdays, etc...) that take place.
    Last edited by UtwigMU; 10th November 2021 at 10:17.

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