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Thread: WTF :2019-nCoV NovaCoronaVirus Thread

  1. #556
    Moderator dZeus's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Umfriend View Post
    I hope you don't get it and that if you do you'll be fine. I am worried that you are relying on simple and/or biased and/or irrelevant statistics but then it is not like I know the whole story. What I do think though is that if everyone went by your analysis, many would not be vaxxed which in turn would increase the probability of bad outcomes many times. To be sure, I think that your claimed probability of getting infected within 6 months at 30% (no clue whether that is accurate) is at 30% because many around you did take the shot.
    I'm far from convinced that science is settled on the vaccine reducing spread.
    However, the science is pretty much settled on vaccines reducing severe complications in case of infection. With Pfizer, the chances of side-effects are so small that there's no reason not to take it for people above 20-30 (I didn't find an exact age).

    Anyway, there's a good reason why many governments are now openly discussing vaccine mandates:
    Omicron is spreading so much faster than Delta, that even IF it's much milder on average, that the outliers that have severe cases are going to lead to a breakdown of our healthcare systems.

  2. #557
    Super MURCer UtwigMU's Avatar
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    > 2 weeks to flatten the curve
    > Vaccine will lead to normality
    > 2 shots are 90% effective and everything will be mostly normal by autumn
    > 2 shots are only <50% effective after 6 months and against delta
    > booster is 80% effective against severe covid
    <--- You are here
    > booster is not enough, 4th shot is needed
    <--- Israel is here
    > 1st omicron specific booster (omicron has many mutations on spike protein which is basis for all vaccines, Moderna is working on omicron booster)
    > 2nd omicron specific booster
    > 3d omicron booster (3 shots against omicron Pfizer CEO, it was initially interpreted either as 3 shoots planned for omicron but then clarified as 3 shots are equivalent of 2 for omicron - 2 are not enough, we know this much)
    > new variant?
    Last edited by UtwigMU; 22nd December 2021 at 13:06.

  3. #558
    Moderator dZeus's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by UtwigMU View Post
    > 2 weeks to flatten the curve
    > Vaccine will lead to normality
    > 2 shots are 90% effective and everything will be mostly normal by autumn
    > 2 shots are only <50% effective after 6 months and against delta
    > booster is 80% effective against severe covid
    <---You are here
    > booster is not enough, 4th shot is needed
    <--- Israel is here
    > 1st omicron specific booster (omicron has many mutations on spike protein which is basis for all vaccines)
    > 2nd omicron specific booster
    > 3d omicron booster
    > new variant
    So what's your point? A mutating virus for which there is no innate immunity is a moving target?
    How is that supposed to be a surprise?

    This virus is endemic. Meaning, it will NEVER go away. The only way to deal with it is to train your immune system and/or hope it mutates into something with common cold symptoms and meanwhile flatten the curve not to overload our healthcare systems while waiting for a relatively harmless variety that takes over..
    Last edited by dZeus; 22nd December 2021 at 12:51.

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    Crabby Smurf Umfriend's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by dZeus View Post
    I'm far from convinced that science is settled on the vaccine reducing spread.
    I agree. However, I think it is the most likely outcome for now so until it turns out to be different, this I would propose as the default position.

    There is, for instance, this; https://www.thelancet.com/journals/l...690-3/fulltext. It is not a dramatic improvements and pre-Omicron. However, it is measured in households which, I would say, is the severest stress you can apply as it is almost certain that household members will interact during any timeframe where one would be infectouous. If, and this is an if, vaccinated people spread not so much less but also for a shorter period of time, then IRL it makes a real difference (compared to frequent handwashing, masking etc. Not sure about distancing).
    Last edited by Umfriend; 22nd December 2021 at 13:15.
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    Moderator Dr Mordrid's Avatar
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    The major gain from CoVid-19 vaccines has been they reduce the severity of infection in those who have comorbidities or would otherwise fall seriously ill, thereby reducing deaths.

    The revelation that Moderna's 1/2 dose Delta booster increases antibodies 37-fold and it works against Omicron is sauce for the goose. A dedicated Omicron booster would be better, but until then...

    While Moderna doses 1&2 only gave me a sore arm for 1 day the booster tired me for 2 days, clearly my immune system shifting into high gear. No biggie.

    Good things, yes? Get the damned shots.
    Last edited by Dr Mordrid; 22nd December 2021 at 19:21.
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    Quote Originally Posted by dZeus View Post
    So what's your point?
    Both vaccinated and unvaccinated will never be fully vaccinated.

  7. #562
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    Quote Originally Posted by UtwigMU View Post
    Both vaccinated and unvaccinated will never be fully vaccinated.
    And thus similar to other endemic viruses like the flu.

    Once we're dealing with a variant that doesn't overload our healthcare system, vaccination could be reduced to a strong suggestion for only the at-risk population, much like flu jabs today.

    Most measures taken so far are a direct consequence to preventing the healthcare system from overloading. Uncertainty about Omicron's impact is driving a vaccination mandate. We'll have to see in the next 3-4 weeks how the UK deals with Omicron, as they've been hit relatively early in Europe and will be used to model further response measures on the continent.

    I just fail to see the 'big conspiracy' about vaccination, other than politiicans being politiicans and making false promises about the future. No change from the situation before covid as far as I'm concerned.

    You're better off ignoring politicians and listening to renowed mainstream epidemiologists for sane news on a Covid response.
    Last edited by dZeus; 23rd December 2021 at 02:18.

  8. #563
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    Quote Originally Posted by Umfriend View Post
    I agree. However, I think it is the most likely outcome for now so until it turns out to be different, this I would propose as the default position.

    There is, for instance, this; https://www.thelancet.com/journals/l...690-3/fulltext. It is not a dramatic improvements and pre-Omicron. However, it is measured in households which, I would say, is the severest stress you can apply as it is almost certain that household members will interact during any timeframe where one would be infectouous. If, and this is an if, vaccinated people spread not so much less but also for a shorter period of time, then IRL it makes a real difference (compared to frequent handwashing, masking etc. Not sure about distancing).
    That study literally concludes:
    However, this study unfortunately also highlights that the vaccine effect on reducing transmission is minimal in the context of delta variant circulation.
    So nope, I don't agree that the vaccine helps reduce transmission substantially. Imo the vaccine should be judged on its scientifically proven merits, and not by wishful thinking. Prescribing vaccines to the sub-30 cohort of population is a waste of government funds; at best give them a choice but why not let them get naturally acquired immunity?
    I believe that there is too much focus on covid19 vaccines being the solution to every problem (spread and severe cases), when that leads to a waste of funds and creates a false sense of security (vaccinated persons still contribute to spread and severe cases, especially if they intermingle with unvaccinated negatively tested individuals in indoor locations such as restaurants and nightclubs.
    Last edited by dZeus; 23rd December 2021 at 10:05.

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    So the full quote is:
    This study confirms that COVID-19 vaccination reduces the risk of delta variant infection and also accelerates viral clearance in the context of the delta variant. However, this study unfortunately also highlights that the vaccine effect on reducing transmission is minimal in the context of delta variant circulation.
    Now I may be wrong, but as I read this, it does lower spread, just not when someone is already infected. However, as you have a lower probability of getting infected/infectious, it still limits spread. Anyway, with Omicron, it may all be irrelevant atm.
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  10. #565
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    Quote Originally Posted by Umfriend View Post
    So the full quote is: Now I may be wrong, but as I read this, it does lower spread, just not when someone is already infected. However, as you have a lower probability of getting infected/infectious, it still limits spread. Anyway, with Omicron, it may all be irrelevant atm.
    My bad, I stand corrected.

  11. #566
    Super MURCer Evildead666's Avatar
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    Whasaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaap people

    Been a while, I know.
    Looks like vaccines are the same problem everywhere, with two sides against each other.

    I got double Pfizer this summer, and had my Moderna booster yesterday.
    No side effects from any of them, apart from a tiny sore arm, and I mean tiny soreness. No fatigue or anything, but i am also off work for two weeks (this and next week)

    Covid may eventually be beaten, I have been following the Forbes website (among others), specifically a Healthcare contributor, https://www.forbes.com/sites/william...h=47b432e35088 William Haseltine.
    He has recently posted this article about Immunocompromised people being basically the incubators of the covid mutations.
    https://www.forbes.com/sites/william...h=1d0dcf9671c9

    Thinking about it, we have a big Bird flu problem over here, has been for a couple of years or more now, even before Covid reared its ugly head.
    Maybe one person caught bird flu in all that time. It certainly didn't go nuts.
    Catching a virus or disease through a zoonotic vector, is very, very hard, and very, very unlikely.
    We are not the same species, and differ greatly in our genetic makeup.

    It most probably happened once for covid-19, be it via pangolin, bat, both or whatever.
    A really unlucky jump from animal to human.
    Since then, the variants are from Human-Human transmission.

    However, until we vaccinate all of the immunocompromised in the World, we will continue to have the possibility of badass variants appearing, and rendering our vaccines useless.
    So if you're unhappy about having the vaccine at all, or just don't want to be vaccinated every 6 months forever (i'm exaggerating) get the people in power to start sending billions of vaccines to those countries and people that need them.
    It's highly likely that immunocompriomised people would be quite happy to be vaccinated, rather than risk months of illness.
    Immunocompromised people would be those with HIV, Leukemia, and those undergoing medical treatment that renders their immune system kaput (chemotherapy etc), among other reasons.

    As for the current vaccines, they don't hinder infection or transmissibility of the Omicron variant, and only mildly hinder infection for the Delta variant, but not transmissibility.
    The do however greatly reduce the symptoms, and severity of the infection.
    The alleviates the need for hospitalization, which is the plan until a new Omicron-orientated vaccine is ready (mid 2022 at the earliest, more likely autumn).
    Groups of currently vaccinated people could quite happily be infected, and infect the others around them.

    Numbers here are already beating anything we've had so far, in infected per day, and total concurrently infected.
    however, we don't have Hospitals being overwhelmed yet, though hospitalizations are increasing daily, and more and more space is being taken up.
    At the current speed, it won't take too long for there to be a lack of beds.
    Many regions here have already delayed general surgeries, because they have no room for the patients in their wards after the surgery.
    Lots of workers are off sick, or isolating too, which is causing great problems on trains, and airline flights, and Hospital staff (which was already spread super thin).

    Back in the 80's we sang "Feed the World", it now needs to be "Vaccinate the World, especially the immunocompromised".
    Not as catchy, but much more important

    Lets try not to have a 3rd Covid Christmas in 2022.
    Stay safe everyone.
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  12. #567
    Crabby Smurf Umfriend's Avatar
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    Anyway, I am getting my booster next Tuesday! Yeah!
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  13. #568
    Moderator Dr Mordrid's Avatar
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    Oh, my...

    It uses a 24-faced protein with a variety of SARS spikes attached. Shotgun approach.

    https://www.defenseone.com/technolog...riants/360089/

    US Army Creates Single Vaccine Against All COVID & SARS Variants, Researchers Say

    Within weeks, scientists at the Walter Reed Army Institute of Research expect to announce that they have developed a vaccine that is effective against COVID-19 and all its variants, even Omicron, as well as previous SARS-origin viruses that have killed millions of people worldwide.*

    The achievement is the result of almost two years of work on the virus. The Army lab received its first DNA sequencing of the COVID-19 virus in early 2020. Very early on, Walter Reed’s infectious diseases branch decided to focus on making a vaccine that would work against not just the existing strain but all of its potential variants as well.

    Walter Reed’s*Spike Ferritin Nanoparticle COVID-19 vaccine, or SpFN, completed animal trials earlier this year with positive results. Phase 1 of human trials, wrapped up this month, again with positive results that are undergoing final review, Dr. Kayvon Modjarrad, director of Walter Reed’s infectious diseases branch, said in an exclusive interview with*Defense One*on Tuesday. The new vaccine will still need to undergo phase 2 and phase 3 trials.

    "We're testing our vaccine against all the different variants, including Omicron," Modjarrad said.
    >
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  14. #569
    Super MURCer Evildead666's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Dr Mordrid View Post
    Oh, my...

    It uses a 24-faced protein with a variety of SARS spikes attached. Shotgun approach.

    https://www.defenseone.com/technolog...riants/360089/
    Sounds really safe.

    Only mildly reminds me of "the Stand", again.
    (Not that crappy remake though.)
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    Super MURCer UtwigMU's Avatar
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    So I had the coof.

    Sunday felt a bit fatigued but I chalked it up to all the stress. Afternoon got a headache and 38.5°C fever so I stayed in bed. Evening completed some assignment for IT test.
    Monday stayed home, took self test and public testing, both came negative. Took vitamins and occasional paracetamol. Online for work, fixed a couple of things remotely
    Wednesday 6th test in 3 days was negative and since I had car service appointment I took car there to have rear light replaced.
    Thursday someone's workstation wouldn't boot so I decided to go to work. On the way took public test again and just as I arrived they called that my test was positive. I turned back home.

    So it took 4 days for test to show positive

    Friday took PCR test which was 200 km round trip since there's only one site which does PCR without doctor appointing you, which also came back positive.
    Saturday fever ended, only felt fatigued
    Monday notified my doctor over email and now I need to isolate until the end of week. I have no more symptoms and I feel fine

    Overall omicron felt like strong cold with fever, headache and muscle aches. I had normal taste throughout. The tricky part is test is only positive few days after the onset of symptoms. On the days I could have gotten infected I was only at work and in supermarket.

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