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Thread: WTF :2019-nCoV NovaCoronaVirus Thread

  1. #376
    Moderator dZeus's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by UtwigMU View Post
    Some data points:
    UK 60%+ vaccination rate. Extended lockdown
    Seems vaccinated can also die from delta but the sample I saw is small.
    Israel 60%+ vaccinated, around 50% of new cases among already vaccinated
    Russia has high number of cases despite about 20% vaccination rate and different vaccine
    Mongolia 60% vaccinated with Sinopharm, cases going up
    Australia in lockdown again

    FDA added warning of risk of heart inflamation to vaccinations.

    Seems vaccinations are not preventing the Covid spread, to some extent they are slowing it down.

    I would like to foresee that autumn will be better but these data points seem to indicate it won't be. Enjoy summer and get ready for another wave.
    It's not realistic to expect vaccines to provide 100% protection from infection and disease; I don't see any of the vaccine makers claiming that either.
    What studies have shown so far (the data is still rather limited because delta only emerged relatively recently), is that two jabs of vaccine from Pfizer or AstraZeneca provides greatly reduced risk of developing Covid to the point where ICU admission is required, when compared to an equivalent unvaccinated population.

    Figures of vaccinated population getting infected by Covid/delta doesn't say much by themselves, as there are plenty of factors to consider.
    For example
    * How does it compare to the figures of the equivalent unvaccinated cohort of the same population? Most vaccination programmes were aimed at vaccinating the most vulnerable first, i.e. people with underlying health issues (so-called 'comorbidities') and the elderly. If you are going to compare the figures for vaccinated elderly with unvaccinated 10-29 year olds, you're probably going to draw incorrect conclusions because the 10-29 year old never were at great risk of developing complications from covid in the first place.
    * What's the rate of infectoin, hospitalization, ICU admission and death for vaccinated vs. equivalent unvaccinated segment of population?
    * Another thing to consider is how contagious a variant is. If delta truly is 40-60% (or whatever the latest estimate is) more contagious than the alpha variant (which was already 40% more contagious than the 'classic' covid), then the percentage of vaccinated cohort of the population needs to be increased in order to stop the spread. We might very well end up needing 80+% rate of vaccinated/previously infected to stop the spread.

    The detected risk of heart inflammation from Pfizer seems minimal compared to the protective effect it provides. All vaccines are a question of a risk vs. benefit ratio, and so far I haven't seen any good reason not to use vaccines from Pfizer/AstraZeneca/Moderna.

    It's completely normal that you'll see further waves of Covid as the virus mutates and adapts; Covid has become an endemic virus (much like flu), and people may (or may not) require booster shots in future to provide protection against complications.
    Last edited by dZeus; 30th June 2021 at 09:01.

  2. #377
    Moderator Dr Mordrid's Avatar
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    Michigan Wednesday update,

    Vaccinated (statewide): 61.7%
    Vaccinated (Detroit): 35.6%
    New cases: 195
    Deaths: 4
    Hospital CoVid-19 occupancy: 2%

    Still having trouble getting Detroiters to vaccinate.
    Last edited by Dr Mordrid; 30th June 2021 at 22:16.
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  3. #378
    Moderator Dr Mordrid's Avatar
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    MI Friday CoVid-19 update

    New cases: 101
    Deaths: 0
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  4. #379
    Crabby Smurf Umfriend's Avatar
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    So we were doing well and then we opened up quickly. We went from 4.3 infections per 100k (daily, weekly average) on July 1st to 60 in just two weeks. Sure, this is mainly caused by younger people who aren't fully vaccinated yet so it might not really be a serious issue. But all policy instruments are not easily adjusted to such nuances. I am leaving for France Sunday and I hope I'll still be allowed in, darnit. Our R is now at 2.2, the highest it has ever been.

    We'll be surpassing the US wrt vaccinations soon. Luckily almost 90% is willing to take a vaccine.
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  5. #380
    Moderator dZeus's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Umfriend View Post
    So we were doing well and then we opened up quickly. We went from 4.3 infections per 100k (daily, weekly average) on July 1st to 60 in just two weeks. Sure, this is mainly caused by younger people who aren't fully vaccinated yet so it might not really be a serious issue. But all policy instruments are not easily adjusted to such nuances. I am leaving for France Sunday and I hope I'll still be allowed in, darnit. Our R is now at 2.2, the highest it has ever been.

    We'll be surpassing the US wrt vaccinations soon. Luckily almost 90% is willing to take a vaccine.
    Guess that's what happens if you build policy based on the alpha variant when a much more contagious delta variant is about.
    Last summer, the new covid wave also started with 18-30 year olds. Many are very mobile, not scared of covid (low chance of serious complications) and like to travel and party with little distance between them. It's only when they returned home that they started to infect family members in different age categories.

    I believe the latest estimate I've heard for delta is a 90-95% vaccination rate in order to not have uncpntrolled spread. In other words, we'll get another wave of hospitalizations, but mostly concentrated on unvaccinated people with underlying comorbidities, as well as feeble elderly who aren't sufficiently protected by the vaccine.

    When the next variant emerges that is more successful at escaping the immune system of the vaccinated, politicians may start seriously consider the viability of entertainment like night clubs and packed festivals in a post-covid world.

  6. #381
    Crabby Smurf Umfriend's Avatar
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    Jup.

    Just look at the photo's here: https://www.nrc.nl/nieuws/2021/07/07...iting-a4050026

    I mean, R0 for Delta is probably about 7.
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  7. #382
    Moderator VJ's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Umfriend View Post
    So we were doing well and then we opened up quickly. We went from 4.3 infections per 100k (daily, weekly average) on July 1st to 60 in just two weeks. Sure, this is mainly caused by younger people who aren't fully vaccinated yet so it might not really be a serious issue. But all policy instruments are not easily adjusted to such nuances. I am leaving for France Sunday and I hope I'll still be allowed in, darnit. Our R is now at 2.2, the highest it has ever been.
    It is amazing to see how fast it shot up in the Netherlands... We are planning to - finally - go to Belgium (by car) in just over a week, but are planning to avoid Netherlands altogether as we can do it with a very small detour (via Achen). We also have a visit to Paris planned in the beginning of August, but cases in Belgium are also increasing and they may turn orange. So we hope we won't have to cancel the Paris trip.

    Just a heads-up: in France you now need the covid certificate (or a negative test) to be allowed in public transport, hotels, restaurants, ... Belgium press wrote that the covid test has to be visible in the French covid app, so for some people it may require getting additional tests in France. Should not matter for us as we are both fully vaccinated for several weeks now.

    Cases in Poland are very stable, but I think people are just not getting tested: either they don't have serious symptoms, or they don't travel (so don't need to be tested). On the other hand, there is a bigger bias towards young people being vaccinated than in other countries. For various reasons, many older people did not get vaccinated (partly following Polish church, but perhaps also partly because the people did not make the necessary arrangements); the younger people wanted to get vaccinated and actively searched to get it done.
    Last edited by VJ; 15th July 2021 at 06:21.
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  8. #383
    Moderator dZeus's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by VJ View Post
    It is amazing to see how fast it shot up in the Netherlands... We are planning to - finally - go to Belgium (by car) in just over a week, but are planning to avoid Netherlands altogether as we can do it with a very small detour (via Achen). We also have a visit to Paris planned in the beginning of August, but cases in Belgium are also increasing and they may turn orange. So we hope we won't have to cancel the Paris trip.

    Just a heads-up: in France you now need the covid certificate (or a negative test) to be allowed in public transport, hotels, restaurants, ... Belgium press wrote that the covid test has to be visible in the French covid app, so for some people it may require getting additional tests in France. Should not matter for us as we are both fully vaccinated for several weeks now.

    Cases in Poland are very stable, but I think people are just not getting tested: either they don't have serious symptoms, or they don't travel (so don't need to be tested). On the other hand, there is a bigger bias towards young people being vaccinated than in other countries. For various reasons, many older people did not get vaccinated (partly following Polish church, but perhaps also partly because the people did not make the necessary arrangements); the younger people wanted to get vaccinated and actively searched to get it done.
    I don't think you will need an additional test. Just install 'TousAntiCovid' from the app store, in the app select 'Add to wallet' and scan the QR code of your second vaccination certificate, or the results of a PCR/Antibody test not older than 48 hours (72h in certain conditions, not sure which).
    I'm pretty sure it'll accept all European vaccine certificates.

    However, if you have a PCR/Antibody test result that's not in French and does not have a QR code? Good luck!
    Last edited by dZeus; 15th July 2021 at 06:52.

  9. #384
    Moderator VJ's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by dZeus View Post
    I don't think you will need an additional test. Just install 'TousAntiCovid' from the app store, in the app select 'Add to wallet' and scan the QR code of your second vaccination certificate, or the results of a PCR/Antibody test not older than 48 hours (72h in certain conditions, not sure which).
    I'm pretty sure it'll accept all European vaccine certificates.

    However, if you have a PCR/Antibody test result that's not in French and does not have a QR code? Good luck!
    The issue highlighted in Belgian press was not related to the vaccination certificates, but to the PCR tests. Apparently, it is not always possible to make them visible in the French app. In addition, they wrote that if you stay multiple days, you may need extra test to cover the entire stay.
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  10. #385
    Crabby Smurf Umfriend's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by dZeus View Post
    I don't think you will need an additional test. Just install 'TousAntiCovid' from the app store, in the app select 'Add to wallet' and scan the QR code of your second vaccination certificate, or the results of a PCR/Antibody test not older than 48 hours (72h in certain conditions, not sure which).
    I'm pretty sure it'll accept all European vaccine certificates.

    However, if you have a PCR/Antibody test result that's not in French and does not have a QR code? Good luck!
    I assume the Dutch app will be acceptable as well, it is supposed to be a European thing and has QR codes. My big Q now: My vaccination won't be enough because not two weeks fully done during the first week in France. I'll have a PCR test QR but that is only valid for 72 hours. If I want to enter a restaurant in between, would I need to get a test in France?
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  11. #386
    Moderator dZeus's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Umfriend View Post
    I assume the Dutch app will be acceptable as well, it is supposed to be a European thing and has QR codes. My big Q now: My vaccination won't be enough because not two weeks fully done during the first week in France. I'll have a PCR test QR but that is only valid for 72 hours. If I want to enter a restaurant in between, would I need to get a test in France?
    I think you would. Note that I've done a 'Teste Antigénique' in a random pharmacy near me (check Doctolib.fr to find the nearest pharmacy that can do it), and you will get your results and a certificate within 15 minutes after doing the test. There's just the slightly disagreeable act of taking a nasal swab.

  12. #387
    Crabby Smurf Umfriend's Avatar
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    Great, thanks. And that would be valid for like 72 hrs? Anyway, we're staying with people that will help/explain. We'll be fine.
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  13. #388
    Moderator dZeus's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Umfriend View Post
    Great, thanks. And that would be valid for like 72 hrs? Anyway, we're staying with people that will help/explain. We'll be fine.
    I'm not entirely sure on how long test results are valid for. Seems like you now also need a negative test result to enter France, less than 24h old. Easy to enforce when going by plane; not sure if they check any inbound traffic by road.

  14. #389
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  15. #390
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    Quote Originally Posted by dZeus View Post
    I'm not entirely sure on how long test results are valid for. Seems like you now also need a negative test result to enter France, less than 24h old. Easy to enforce when going by plane; not sure if they check any inbound traffic by road.
    Luckily, my 2nd shot was a week ago so, afaik, I don't need a test anymore. Had one but not within 24 hrs.
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