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Thread: ARS: Russia may exit commercial launch business

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    Moderator Dr Mordrid's Avatar
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    Default ARS: Russia may exit commercial launch business

    Thursday April 19 Russia's Duma will also consider counter-sanction legislation which in part would end RD-180 engine sales to ULA (Atlas V) and RD-181 engine sales to OrbitaI ATK (Antares).

    The effect of either embargo is questionable as both have stockpiles and are fielding new launchers; Vulcan and OmegA, within the next 2 years.

    Additionally, SpaceX's Falcon 9, Falcon Heavy and BFR; Blue Origin's New Glenn and New Armstrong; a mystery vehicle from Stratolaunch; and numerous US small satellite launchers, and the US is in good shape.

    Now add about 6 crew-capable spacecraft in the pipeline....

    https://arstechnica.com/science/2018...launch-market/

    Russia appears to have surrendered to SpaceX in the global launch market

    As recently as 2013, Russia controlled about half of the global commercial launch industry with its fleet of rockets, including the Proton boosters. But technical problems with the Proton, as well as competition from SpaceX and other players, has substantially eroded the Russian share. This year, it may only have about 10 percent of the commercial satellite launch market, compared to as much as 50 percent for SpaceX.

    In the past, Russian space officials have talked tough about competing with SpaceX in providing low-cost, reliable service to low-Earth and geostationary orbit. For example, the Russian rocket corporation, Energia, has fast-tracked development of a new medium-class launch vehicle that it is calling Soyuz-5 to challenge SpaceX.

    On Tuesday, however, Russia's chief spaceflight official, Deputy Prime Minister Dmitry Rogozin, made a remarkable comment about that country's competition with SpaceX.

    "The share of launch vehicles is as small as 4 percent of the overall market of space services," Rogozin said in an interview with a Russian television station. "The 4 percent stake isnt worth the effort to try to elbow Musk and China aside. Payloads manufacturing is where good money can be made."
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    Last edited by Dr Mordrid; 18th April 2018 at 23:03.
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    Moderator VJ's Avatar
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    The end of an era...

    But in a way it is not that surprising... They were making the most of old equipment, and it turned out not to stand up against the more modern SpaceX approach. If it is not economically viable, then why try?
    pixar
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    Moderator Dr Mordrid's Avatar
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    They'll be fielding the new Soyuz 5 launcher and Federation spacecraft to replace Soyuz 2, the Soyuz crew vehicle and Progress. Also coming is a new heavy lifter made up of 3-5 Soyuz 5 cores.

    These will be used for domestic launches and participating in the Lunar Orbital Platform-Gateway (LOP-G) station the ISS partners will build starting in 2023-2024.



    Before it's complete a fleet of commercial lunar landers will launch, one possibly at the end of this year or early next. One will deploy 2 BMW built rovers at an Apollo landing site to do recon.

    And, SpaceX is planning BFS sorties to the Moon as part of its test program. Russia is also planning surface missions.

    Soyuz 5 & Federation
    Last edited by Dr Mordrid; 23rd April 2018 at 01:36.
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    The Berserker Jammrock's Avatar
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    Lunar orbiter? That's cool. A baby step out of Earth orbit, but it's a step.

    Now if can just get the Webb into L2 ...
    “Inside every sane person there’s a madman struggling to get out”
    –The Light Fantastic, Terry Pratchett

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    Moderator Dr Mordrid's Avatar
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    Don't take BFR & BFS lightly: they are very real and BFS could make a lunar landing within 4-5 years. Expect some news.

    Also interesting will be this years ISDC = the International Space Development Conference.



    ISDC 2018 @ISDC
    SpaceX CTO of Propulsion Development Tom Mueller is joining the luminaries speaking at http://isdc2018.nss.org/!

    Mueller led the development of the famed Merlin engine and the new Raptor engine powering the new fully reusable Big Falcon Rocket. #SpaceX #ElonMusk #FalconHeavy #BFR
    6:13 PM - Apr 27, 2018

    Tom Mueller is SpaceX's rocket engine wizard.

    Also speaking

    Jeff Bezos: Blue Origin, Amazon

    Dr. Freeman Dyson: theoretical mathematician & astrophysicist, Princeton. Will accept the 2018 Heinlein Award

    Dr. Kathryn Sullivan: former astronauts, former Under Secretary of Commerce for Oceans and Atmosphere and NOAA Administrator
    Dr. Mordrid
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    An elephant is a mouse built to government specifications.

    I carry a gun because I can't throw a rock 1,250 fps

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