Russia - Ukraine war

As long as they have food ammo and water, the Russkies might best stay out of range.

Retired 3-star General Terry Wolff is joining the US National Security Council to oversee US aid to Ukraine. This indicates a lot more is coming.

$800 million in aid is already on the way. One of the first items is 72 155 mm howitzers. There's no breakdown of the 144,000 rounds being shipped with them, but they will include the M982 Excalibur extended range guided projectile. This shipment will also include UAV's.

I haven't checked the USAID site to see if they are sending more SpaceX Starlink user terminals and other such hardware, but they've been very useful so far because the Russians have been unable to jam them. They've been using them for both comms and tactically. USAID, SpaceX and reportedly two European countries have been shipping thousands of terminals.

Maybe those Russians shouldn't get too settled in..

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by Dr Mordrid

As long as they have food ammo and water, the Russkies might best stay out of range.

---

Exactly my point: I assume it is impossible to restock the holdouts in the Azovsteel plant so wonder how long they should be expected to last.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by Umfriend

Exactly my point: I assume it is impossible to restock the holdouts in the Azovsteel plant so wonder how long they should be expected to last.

---

It depends on the physical layout and if they can use drone helicopters to resupply them. Such vehicles exist.

With more room, and of course later in time because it's in development, DOD is working on rocket resupply systems. One concept would involve a robotic Starship landing with up to 100 tons of cargo. Another involved robotic dropships, sort of like Starship Troopers. No joke.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by Dr Mordrid

It depends on the physical layout and if they can use drone helicopters to resupply them. Such vehicles exist.

---

Well, the AzovSteel compound is rather large so there might be room for such devices to land. But I do wonder whether they have such devices though and, even if they did, how realistic is it to expect these to arrive at a completely surrounded location?

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by Umfriend

Well, the AzovSteel compound is rather large so there might be room for such devices to land. But I do wonder whether they have such devices though and, even if they did, how realistic is it to expect these to arrive at a completely surrounded location?

---

The US started using them in Afghanistan in 2012, and more advanced vehicles are on the way.

https://www.latimes.com/business/la-...110-story.html

As I understand it the rocket cargo demo is within the next two years. Initially a collaboration between the US Air Force transportation command and SpaceX, there is an RFI out covering a wide range of payload capabilities.

The Russians have shown susceptibility to Ukrainian night operations. Get them while they're sleeping. On the other hand, the US makes frequent use of night operations via night vision equipment.

I'm sorry. Are you saying Ukraine has such capabilities today?

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by Umfriend

I'm sorry. Are you saying Ukraine has such capabilities today?

---

No, but I am saying that such capabilities exist and in the future they will be much improved.

There's also the issue that the Russians have walked themselves into a fixed position, surrounding the factory. It makes them sitting ducks for that new US artillery. It has an accuracy of ~4 m and a range of 65 km. Now add the drones that were part of the shipment.

Russia is fighting with 1970/1980s equipment and using world war II tactics against 21st century equipment and tactics. They've also found it almost impossible to jam the Starlink communications system, which Ukrainians are using both for comms and tactically.

I'm reading The Poverty of Historicism by Popper. Very interesting. I just read something that made me think of Russia and the EU.

Quote:

---

This may perhaps throw some light on the fact that in democratic countries defending themselves against aggression, sufficient support may be forthcoming for the necessary far-reaching measures (which may even take on the character of holistic planning) without suppression of public criticism, while in countries preparing for an attack or waging an aggressive war, public criticism as a rule must be suppressed, in order that public support may be mobilized by presenting aggression as defence.

---

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by Umfriend

I'm reading The Poverty of Historicism by Popper. Very interesting. I just read something that made me think of Russia and the EU.

---

Short version; get your messaging right before the war.

So, Finland is going to apply for NATO membership. I would bet Sweden to follow soon. So for now, what has Putin accomplished:
1. De-demilitarisation of Germany
2. Increased military spending by NATO-members
3. Japan consider de-demilitarisation
4. Finland to be a NATO member soon(tm)
5. Sweden likely to join soon(tm) thereafter
6. A huge loss of life, material and morale amongst Russian troops
7. A huge loss of life, assets and a huge gain of morale amongst Ukranians
8. Possibly, so this is still speculative, massive food shortages, especially amongst the poorer countries
9. A necessity for Russia to produce basically anything and everything given the boycotts and embargoes
10. A renewed and invigorated resistance against China, specifically with respect to Taiwan and the South Chinese Sea.

Way to go.

I am sure some other gains can be identified but the list is already impressive.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by Umfriend

1. De-demilitarisation of Germany

---

Corrected to Re-Militarization of Germany.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by Umfriend

3. Japan consider de-demilitarisation

---

Corrected to Re-Militarization... Japan never really stopped believing for a moment that the PRC would not be a threat (There have been numerous run-ins with PRC fishing trawlers and gunboats). They are merely putting a public show of force regarding the PRC for the world to see.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by Umfriend

4. Finland to be a NATO member soon(tm)
5. Sweden likely to join soon(tm) thereafter

---

Finland and Sweden entered a pact in March/April where both countries agreed to apply for NATO membership.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by Umfriend

10. A renewed and invigorated resistance against China, specifically with respect to Taiwan and the South Chinese Sea.

---

The "One China" Policy so beloved of the US State Department (since the Clinton years) is dying as we speak. The PRC is attempting (mostly successfully) to play a long game with "re-patriating" Taiwan, because any military solution will trigger a nasty RoC response: If PLA troops land on the Taiwan, the RoC will send 20+ F16Cs to Beijing, Guangdong, Shenzen and a few other selected locations to start a (nuclear-powered) rapid urban demolition project on the mainland. Taiwan has at least 20 air-deliverable nuclear weapons, and they have made it clear that if there is an "existential" threat to them, they will use them. This has been the case since the 1980's. China has been looking and attempting to build the political clout and world backing to affect a takeover. I think the current goals are more embargo/blockade-related than outright conflict, but they are certainly making moves.

The best way out of this is for the West to hand Russia a lifeline to get them free of China. China has performed a masterstroke of geopolitical politicking: Alienating Russia beyond redemption, forcing Russia to China. This should be avoided at all costs. China is the real enemy here.

Uhm, the One China Policy was by Nixon, no?

I disagree we should hand a lifeline to Russia if that means that we should tolerate incursions in, say, Ukraine. I don't think such facilitation of aggressive closed societies has ever brought what we are looking for.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by Umfriend

Uhm, the One China Policy was by Nixon, no?

---

Yes, it was, but it was the Clinton Administration was the one who really turned the screws (actually opened the floodgates) in the 1990's.

Reagan wasn't a fan of "One China", but GHW Bush was... GHW Bush started MFN for the PRC late in his presidency; Clinton's final swan song was getting the Senate to ratify a permanent MFN for PRC. This was one of the dirtiest political deals you never read about ever done; Wal-Mart (with a lot of help from Silicon Valley) bought that vote.

Regarding Russia, we should go so far as to incentivize pulling out of Ukraine, maybe even Crimea. But it is plain that what is now, is not tolerable. Russia is realizing only now what a crappy deal they stumbled into.

I am sure I am lacking knowledge on this but as far as I can tell, the political analysis at the time was that China would transform to a more open society and trade, by raising a middle class, would benefit this development. Then Hu Jintao became General Secretary and things slowly started to revert and it went to shit with Xi Jinping but I submit that this wasn't a necessary outcome and these developments could not have been predicted (well, they could have but were not more likely than other possible developments).

Anyway, although I agree it would be good if Russia and China did not become closer allies, the price to be paid can not be surrendering (parts of) Ukraine. Moreover, given that both are moving to become more and more closed societies, I am not sure it can be avoided at all.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by Umfriend

I am sure I am lacking knowledge on this but as far as I can tell, the political analysis at the time was that China would transform to a more open society and trade, by raising a middle class, would benefit this development.

---

Can't have independent thought and free elections, can we now? God forbid, the Little Red Book might be proven to be worth less than the paper it was printed upon. MFN was a joke in 1991, barely 2 years after Tiananmen square... it was turned into a travesty by greed. That line of reasoning was flawed in the 1990's, and nearly all of the money went into manufacturing plants for the West. The PRC is a nation of slaves, and the Party Leadership is more than happy to see that perpetuated as it finances their military ambitions nicely.

Still and all, things aren't all Rosy for the PRC: The PRC has three real weaknesses: Energy Supply (External Oil and Gas Reliance), lack of indigenous building materials (wood, wood pulp products), and relatively poor internal logistics system (Railyard choke points, poor geography for river navigation and rail travel). Right now, they are getting pinched financially (Cash Flow) because of the massive supply chain disruption brought on by COVID-19, and now the bills are coming due to pay for the unprecedented 2004-2015 growth period.

Along the way, they found out that their (substandard quality) for-domestic-use Cement and Steel they used to produce that growth will have long term, lasting effects. They are starting to have deal with direct technical and societal debt regarding basics such as electricity and water. The Three Gorges Dam is already having to be shored up and repaired, and several crucial rail lines have been adversely affected by poor water management practices.

We haven't even talked about the state of Agriculture in the PRC, which looks great on the surface (right up in until 2018), but is in fact headed into a state of decline due to lack of modernization, and more importantly, water supply issues. This will have lasting effects in the PRC and also for the PRC's agriculture customers.

Chinese military website.

After its performance in the Ukraine war they are really wigged out over Starlink. Ukrainians are using it not just to bring there civilian comms back online but to do targeting, communication with uavs, the whole shebang and the Russians are having a fit trying to jam it - they can't.

http://eng.chinamil.com.cn/view/2022...t_10152439.htm

DoD has also noticed

https://spacenews.com/space-force-ge...onstellations/

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by Dr Mordrid

Chinese military website.

After its performance in the Ukraine war they are really wigged out over Starlink. Ukrainians are using it not just to bring there civilian comms back online but to do targeting, communication with uavs, the whole shebang and the Russians are having a fit trying to jam it - they can't.

---

Sure they can, at the cost of blinding themselves... which amounts to "un-jammable". Point-to-Point Laser links are essentially unjammable barring the use of diffusion aerosols/smoke. UAVs which connect to Starlink directly and extremely hard to jam, because the jammer is far below the UAV.

The Russians haven't sent many aircraft over the Ukraine after figuring out the hard way that attempting to achieve air superiority over a SAM-infested country is a non-starter without stealth aircraft or massive air-refuelling capabilities to enable dashes over the border for SEAD missions. Russian tactical thinking failed utterly in the area of SEAD. Air warfare is not simply tank warfare in the sky; their Prewar planning seemed to think that's what it was. To borrow a line from Star Trek II, The Wrath of Khan: "He's intelligent, but not experienced; his pattern indicates two-dimensional thinking".

I was struck (as were many Russian Helicopters) by how ignorant the Russians were, sending helicopters right over a lake, essentially providing the SAMs a nearly laboratory-grade Infrared Reference for detecting the hot engines against the cool waters and cooler air above the lakes. Granted, the Russians learned quickly, but not before they were deprived of a regiment or two of attack helicopters.

Likewise, the Ukrainians set up SAM Traps (an early 1980's NATO tactical invention) and lured in Russian fighters going after Ukrainian aircraft which were only presented as bait: again the losses were horrific for Russia.

Russia has had an fairly effective standoff campaign using cruise missiles against fixed targets, but no Forward Air Control to direct precision attacks against tactical targets... and it's showing, big time.

China is wetting themselves because Russia laid bare a big hole in Chinese Tactical thinking regarding a Taiwan invasion and likely Taiwanese countermeasures/defenses.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by MultimediaMan

Sure they can, at the cost of blinding themselves... which amounts to "un-jammable". Point-to-Point Laser links are essentially unjammable barring the use of diffusion aerosols/smoke. UAVs which connect to Starlink directly and extremely hard to jam, because the jammer is far below the UAV.
>

---

All Starlink satellites since about New Year's have had laser links, and once Starship starts flying the Gen 2 birds get massive upgrades and they'll carry hosted payloads. It'll carry almost 200 at a time.

During the November 2022 Polaris Dawn Crew Dragon mission they will not only do spacewalks but also test lasercom with Starlink from about 1400 km up.

About Taiwan and nukes, did they hold back some fissile materials when they "ended" their program?

A totally disturbed toon

Roscosmos is the Russian space agency.

https://www.novinite.com/articles/21...uclear+Missile

Quote:

---

Head of Roscosmos Threatened Bulgaria with a Nuclear Missile

"This is what Sarmat is good for. It will not ask for consent for the flight from the cowardly Bulgarians, the vicious Romanians and the Montenegrins who betrayed our common history. Like the other various nations like the Swedes."

This was written on Twitter by the former Deputy Prime Minister of Russia and CEO of Roscosmos Dmitry Rogozin on the occasion of Bulgaria's refusal to provide an air corridor for a government plane to Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov.

The RS-28 Sarmat, better known as "Satan II", is a super-heavy intercontinental ballistic missile for carrying nuclear warheads. Its range is 18,000 kilometers.
>

---

This is similar to freedom fries.

Russians see it as they liberated Bulgaria and other Balkan states from Ottoman empire. As a thanks Bulgaria fought against Russia in both world wars and now its blocking air space to Russian diplomats.

Russia is an early 20th century power trying to find its way through the 21st century. So far they aren't doing very well, and it's going to bite them in the ass.

Increasing tensions between Kazakhstan and Russia over Ukraine. Can't help but think there's a p ubossible impact on Russia's Baikonur launch center, which is in Kazakhstan.

https://twitter.com/b_nishanov/statu...23985977982977

There was an Islamist revolution attempt in Kazakhstan in December but it was put down with help from Russia. Former Kazakh president Nazarbaev (he ruled the place for 30 years) did really good job of strengthening and building up Kazakhstan while avoiding ethnic tensions. He also cracked down hard on Islamists (despite country's main religion being islam). He maintained good relations with Russia: they are positioned between Russia, China, Caspian sea and Pakistan/Afghanisan further south, Russia being their best choice out of those.

He was forced to step down by factions in the government and since then the place is a bit less stable. Another problem is high inflation but they also have oil profits.

Let me explain situation from US perspective: In USA there is a revolution, USA falls apart in 10-15 blocks of states. Texas maintains good relations with core of southern US states and hosts their military. Mexico creates a coup, then southern states create a counter coup followed by another Mexican coup. The new Mexican sponsored president of Texas says he will make Spanish official language, ban English and ban pro American political parties, evict southern US army and join Mexico. On top of that he plans to host Russian and Chinese missiles pointed at south US states. Some parts of Texas don't like that and decide to create independent states within Texas. Central Government from Austin sends military trained by and helped by Mexican mercenaries. US southern states support rebels in Texas. After no agreement is reached for 8 years and low scale military conflict continues, US southern states decide to "liberate" or "violently occupy" (depending whether you're pro Mexico or pro US southern states) Texas. English speakers welcome them as liberators, while Spanish speakers see them as evil Gringo occupiers.

The sad part is that for Ukraine it would be best if they could separate peacefully and remain friends like Czechia and Slovakia. Unfortunately USA thinks they will weaken Russia and Russia's relations with other post Soviet and European states and screw over the EU by keeping the conflict going until the last Ukrainian. They are helping Ukraine just enough to keep war going but not enough to win. Russia also wants in best case the whole Ukraine as they see it as their win from WW2. 20 million people died for this and they are not letting it go. Maybe some elements just want eastern and black Sea coast Russian speaking regions.

Had Hillary won in 2016 with Biden in administration, this conflict would have started 4 years earlier.

Ukrainian government's position is give back Crimea and pull back to Russia which does not reflect reality on the ground. Russians got going now and they won't stop grinding until they get east and south. No one wants to sit in a bunker for 100 years, not even billionaires, so there won't be a nuclear war or NATO response. There also won't be peace anytime soon.

Tensions starting in Kosovo.
Serbians blocked border crossings out of protest over Albanians not recognizing Serbian issued licence plates and documents (which was a countermeasure for Serbia not recognizing Kosovo licence plates and requiring vehicles to get temp licence plate).
Albanians sending special forces to crossings, shots fired.
Serbian army on high alert.
Serbian president calls for peace but says there will be no surrender and Serbia will win.
Serbian MP says they need own denacification.
NATO KFOR forces say situation on the ground is normal.

Could be a nothingburger that will fade out but also could be start of another conflict that drags NATO in.

The news outlets don't seem to mention Albania or Albanian forces..., only Kosovo and Serbia, e.g. https://www.theguardian.com/world/20...serbian-border

Kosovars = Albanian nationality not Albanian country. I mean ethnically Albanian forces and ethnic Albanian Kosovo Army.