Saddly I don't think this will be over by summer though probably measures will start to be effective and we will see new cases tapering off.
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Saddly I don't think this will be over by summer though probably measures will start to be effective and we will see new cases tapering off.
No confirmed cases in MI, 20 being tested. Population: ~10M
Michigan Department of Health and Human Services Bureau of Laboratories has opened their emergency lab and can get results in hours.
Containment Zone: 1 sq/mi in New Rochelle, NY.
NY National Guard (state militia, US reserve forces) going in.
https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.was...outputType=amp
Quote:
Schools, places of worship and other large gathering spots will close their doors for 14 days beginning Thursday, Cuomo said, and National Guard troops will help deliver food and disinfect common areas inside the zone.
Lombardy has population of 10M. Italy got hit first because they have large Chinese population. When quarantine hit in China, Chinese with residence and relatives in Italy headed there.
Other European countries and USA are only lagging a few weeks behind Italy although they closed schools and limited gatherings sooner. Italy has decent public health and high life expectancy. Based on spread statistics there are probably a lot untested cases in USA and spread there is only now starting to take hold, so some areas there will look like Italy in a few weeks. In Italy hospitals now have to triage patients based on age and likelihood of recovery.
I heard from 3 sources that actual cases in Slovenia are higher and there are more people in hospitals than officially declared (32, double from 2 days ago).
MI just announced 2 presumed cases, waiting for CDC confirmation. One male, one female, both middle-age.
Wayne County (Detroit area)
Oakland county (northwest of Wayne County), an international traveller.
All but 6 border crossings with Italy are closed as of today. My bro is still in Slovenia as he has some work to finish but he will go to italy to be with his family there. I live walking distance to Italian border. Weird to see barricades on crossings that were open for 15 years and no Italian cars at gas stations.
Official number is at 57.
I'm cooking and eating at home, so this is importunity to learn new recipes.
https://twitter.com/jasonvanschoor/s...42891077697538
Quote:
From a well respected friend and intensivist/A&E consultant who is currently in northern Italy:
1/ ‘I feel the pressure to give you a quick personal update about what is happening in Italy, and also give some quick direct advice about what you should do.
2/ First, Lumbardy is the most developed region in Italy and it has a extraordinary good healthcare, I have worked in Italy, UK and Aus and don’t make the mistake to think that what is happening is happening in a 3rd world country.
3/ The current situation is difficult to imagine and numbers do not explain things at all. Our hospitals are overwhelmed by Covid-19, they are running 200% capacity
4/ We’ve stopped all routine, all ORs have been converted to ITUs and they are now diverting or not treating all other emergencies like trauma or strokes. There are hundreds of pts with severe resp failure and many of them do not have access to anything above a reservoir mask.
5/ Patients above 65 or younger with comorbidities are not even assessed by ITU, I am not saying not tubed, I’m saying not assessed and no ITU staff attends when they arrest. Staff are working as much as they can but they are starting to get sick and are emotionally overwhelmed.
6/ My friends call me in tears because they see people dying in front of them and they con only offer some oxygen. Ortho and pathologists are being given a leaflet and sent to see patients on NIV. PLEASE STOP, READ THIS AGAIN AND THINK.
7/ We have seen the same pattern in different areas a week apart, and there is no reason that in a few weeks it won’t be the same everywhere, this is the pattern:
8/ 1)A few positive cases, first mild measures, people are told to avoid ED but still hang out in groups, everyone says not to panick
2)Some moderate resp failures and a few severe ones that need tube, but regular access to ED is significantly reduced so everything looks great
9/ 3)Tons of patients with moderate resp failure, that overtime deteriorate to saturate ICUs first, then NIVs, then CPAP hoods, then even O2.
4)Staff gets sick so it gets difficult to cover for shifts, mortality spikes also from all other causes that can’t be treated properly.
10/ Everything about how to treat them is online but the only things that will make a difference are: do not be afraid of massively strict measures to keep people safe,
11/ if governments won’t do this at least keep your family safe, your loved ones with history of cancer or diabetes or any transplant will not be tubed if they need it even if they are young. By safe I mean YOU do not attend them and YOU decide who does and YOU teach them how to.
12/ Another typical attitude is read and listen to people saying things like this and think “that’s bad dude†and then go out for dinner because you think you’ll be safe.
13/ We have seen it, you won’t be if you don’t take it seriously. I really hope it won’t be as bad as here but prepare.
These photos are of ORs being cleared in Bergamo on the 6 March to make more ICU beds. These spaces are all now filled with patients. In Brescia they have run out of ICU beds and are turning doctors rooms and store rooms into ICUs.
POTUS addressed the nation, and is instituting a 30 day travel ban on Europe. UK is OK, for now, but the situation is fluid and could change.
Also some economic stimulus moves, getting insurance co-pays for CoVid-19 tests cancelled, financial assistance & tax deferments for small businesses and their employees.
Closing the borders seems like a sensible thing to do... Not sure if not to limit it even more than just to Europeans, but OTOH at the moment that does seem the biggest problem area.
Here in Poland, schools will be closed for 2 weeks (including all lectures at universities and so).
Only just over 30 cases in Poland, but government/press is really informing people, there are border checks (taking temperatures of people) and in response people started panic-shopping. No scenes as in Australia, but large queues in the shops and noticably less people on the street. Also shorter traffic jams, but surprisingly still a lot of people on public transport (I would have expected the reverse: more people in cars, less on public transport).
I'm expecting we'll get permission (or will even be mandated) to work from home any time soon.
96 cases, we went from 1 to 96 in 9 days, we're 12th in cases/1M population. New goverment will be sworn in tomorrow and the right wing are much better to handle this. Best thing previous PM did in during his term was that he resigned.
Got VPN working on new corporate router so people can work remotely if needed (by my own initiative without asking management). Fortunately I upgraded router and brought in 100/100 line end of last year. I took initiative to have brief talks with coworkers on how they could work remotely (caddies would probably take workstations home, others could RDP or use apps on laptops), management still has head in arse and thinks everything will be hunky dory by summer.
Need to think of ways to earn extra cash.
I checked - I sent email to my parents warning them s#!t will get real (stock some extra food, avoid crowds) a month ago when there were only 900 cases outside China.
We stockpile supplies, months worth. Food, necessities, meds, NG/propane generator (NG line + buried propane tank in the back yard), water storage, etc. Old habits from growing up on a farm.
Attachment 6529Quote:
Originally Posted by Dr Mordrid
People who are holes up for 2-3 weeks are still going to use the potty :)
Michigan cases jump to 12, almost all with a recent travel history.
Positives confirmed in state labs, but private labs also activated.
K-12 schools closed until April 6
Governor asking businesses to support parents who need to stay with kids.
MI's governor barrs events with over 250 people.
Trump to invoke the Stafford Act, a national emergency. Among other things, it eases emergency funding to the states.
Massive columns of trucks, wait time 15h at the border because Croatia closed borders for all trucks from Italy , so they are stuck on Slovenian side. Also Romanians stranded because the Croatia doesn't let them pass through (they are returning from Italy to Romania). Anyone entering Croatia is required to take 14 days quarantine and foreigners need to pay 500 EUR for it, also some Japanese stranded here as they don't want to go/pay for Croatian quarantine. Hungary also closed borders. Austria is planning it
141 cases, new government sworn in and went straight to work. People did panic shopping today, half of canned goods were missing from shelves, no potatoes, carrots or onions. (I have reserves already only buy day to day stuff twice a week.)
Talked to some woman who works in shoe company, she said they have some supplies from Italy but no supplies coming in. Once supply shock comes down the chains, the economic impact of this will be massive.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CBEhSNzX0fg
Italians singing on balconies during total lockdown (only groceries and pharmacies open with limit how many can enter).
Poland closed borders for foreigners. This in practice means that if anything happens to my parents or other familiy, I have problems visiting them, as I won't be allowed to return to Poland.
EDIT: apparently, I would be allowed back in based on some documents I have. But I would have to go in a 2 week quarantaine just like Polish returning.
Similar shop lockdown here....
Well, we're all going to end up in some sort of lockdown, be it voluntary, or forced.
We're stocked up OK here, made sure my parents got a couple of months of Meds when they got back fom the US thursday last week.
The closing of Bars and stuff at midnight last night was a bit of a shock to some, as it was only announced at 7pm yesterday.
I'm still waiting for a reply from my bosses on whether I go to work tomorrow or not.
Technically, I can do a large part of my job from home, but contractually, I can't.
Having been off for the last two weeks also means my Work laptop is on my desk, even though I could probably do without it.
If I get no reply, i'll just have to get the train tomorrow morning as usual...not sure where i'm going to be able to get lunch, if everywhere is closed...
Most of Europe is now closing down all non-essential commercial businesses.
It looks like it will be for at least 7-30 days. I'm seeing until 15th April here and there.
UK is saying old folks may have to self-quarantine for up to 4 months..yikes.
Good Luck, and Good Health everyone.
In MI home schooling is a big thing, and legal, so long ago the State started offering online education as an official option. Seems that decision was a really good one.
Do you guys have any cooking ideas for stuff that can be warmed and eaten for like 2 days. I'm precooking tomorrow's lunch.
Made goluash last week and though i lacked bayleaves and garlic it was about on the average restaurant level.
Evildead:
Depends how long this closure will last. Everyone is saying April but I think April won't be the end of this.
One bottleneck is health system, countries lack ventilators, so they want to slow spread while they beef up the health systems, get extra capacity and stock on masks and gear.
Tonight we baked some potatoes & grilled some 4oz steaks. Halved the potatoes, crushed the centers then topped "em with steamed broccoli. Drizzled a bit of melted Wisconsin Brick cheese on top.
Not a crumb remained, but stored overnight in Tupperware etc. those potatoes reheat nicely in a microwave. Use a low setting.
Working from home... The city is dead: usually at 9.00 there is a huge traffic jam visible over one of the bridges over the Vistula river, on Monday, barely a car... Today the same... Busses are empty, trams are empty, amazing sight...
As it turns out, the neighbours of my girlfriend's parents were in official police-checked quarantine after their daughter returned two weeks ago from Spain on the same plane as one of the confirmed corona-cases in Poland. And of course we were at her parents. Also, a colleague at work says that the father of one of the children in the school where her childeren go, has tested positive; the whole school was closed. We are angry that the colleague just came to work last Thursday like nothing happened, when there really was no reason for her to do so.
Yesterday, I got some symptoms, but I'm not sure they are defining enough. As an asthma patient (currently very well under control), I'm more worried about it... but any cold comes with breathing discomfort. There is also sneezing and a running nose, which are less typical of corona. So it may just be another stupid virus, then again, it may just as well be psychosomatic. Today is much better so I'm not too worried but monitoring closely. Being allergic to most medication given for asthma (inhalers with salbutamol or fenoterol; but also theophyllin) makes treating the symptom of shortness of breath difficult to problematic esp. as I read that cortisone is not recommended with this virus. Now taking very well care not to go out (either not to infect anyone else, or not to get infected with a weakened immune system).
I did realize that if I were to get sick, my family would not be able to come over. Similarly, I may have issues getting to them if they get sick (both parents are in the risk age group, and have cardiac and bloodpressure issues) as there virtually are no commercial flights and Germany closed its borders (so I won't manage by car or train). This gives a very weird feeling: I always felt that Warsaw was close to Belgium, as I knew deep down I could just go to the airport, pay the hell a lot and get a flight in the next couple of hours. At any time I could probably be from home to my parents in less than 12 hours. Knowing now that that is not an option is weird...
Don't worry everyone is nervous like that. I get nervous at every cough. Friend I spoke to says she taps her forehead for fever multiple times per day.
As for borders, yeah i'm really shocked at how everything changed. I remember reading a story from after ww2 when border closed and families were not able to meet.
But despite all that if people ran across borders in commie times with serious army and security forces guarding, I think you'll be able to make it across Germany into Belgium in couple of days time. Walk across border, get a cab / lift to near Belgium and then walk across there.
When do you guys think this is going to peak? For 50% of Germany to get infected we need 13 doubling cycles and for 50% of USA 15 doubling cycles. Now the growth is ~33% a day, taking 2-3 days to double. With lockdowns it might get to 7-10 days, so we might see a peak sometime in July.
Peak in Belgium with the current limitations in place is expected in 1-2 months (currently ~1300 cases on a population of 11M - they are not testing mild symptoms), if people adhere to the limitations. As this seems problematic for some people, some polititians are calling for a curfew...
Back more personal: what with a wedding planned in July? Second downpayment for the room should be in the middle of April, but do we make it or not? If not, we forego the room and loose the first downpayment. We already made the full payment for the ceremony room... On one hand, July is far, but on the other hand it is not... Adds also to our stress of course.
Even with peak in May July will still look like March so I would say get legally married if you need to but forego the party until better times.
Also I don't know how your business model looks like but entire economies will be impacted by this. Even if you're in public sector you will see some cuts, so better to save cash as you might need it for emergencies.
Bring legal marriage forward actually as there are probably legal issues wrt to visits, notifying next of kin, inheritance that are prudent to think about in such times.
Trump is invoking the Defense Production Act.
US hospitals have about 160,000 ventilators, and the US Strategic Stockpile has about 13,000 more. Now the feds can order/force the production of strategic needs.
AIUI, this can suspend the exclusive use/production portion of patents.
https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/...ll/5076063002/
Wiki
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Defense_Production_Act
Quote:
The Act contains three major sections.
The first authorizes the*President*to require businesses to sign contracts or fulfill orders deemed necessary for national defense.
The second authorizes the President to establish mechanisms (such as regulations, orders or agencies) to allocate materials, services and facilities to promote national defense.
The third section authorizes the President to control the civilian economy so that scarce and/or critical materials necessary to the national defense effort are available for defense needs.
We have 168 with 20-30 ventilators free at any given time. New government is looking for shipments.
The company that normally makes car seats will make masks for state as well as we took part in EU purchase, so we should go from 1000s masks in stock to millions this week.
They brought the guy who successfully lead press conferences during war in 1991 to be press representative of crisis HQ.
Shops now closed from 5pm so everything is spooky but onions and potatoes are back in stock.
Army will get police authority (2/3 vote needed), all gatherings in groups larger than 5 banned but no permits to go to work like Italy for now.
It looks like Iran is a total Charlie Foxtrot, with the holy city of Qom, power base of the mullahs, the epicenter. Heard they lick or kiss a shrine, which spreads virii like crazy.
Guess they've chosen the form of their Destructor, and it's not the Stay-Puft Marshmallow Man.
When authorities closed shrine, the radicals stormed it.
Hey All, I'm still kicking. I haven't posted much in a few years. I retired from Intel back in October 2015 and have been kicking around the country visiting friends.
Anyway, it took the COVID-19 virus awhile to find New Mexico. But the store shelves were emptied of toilet paper before we had our first case of the virus here...LOL!!
We now have 35 cases in New Mexico. Schools are on a 3 week shutdown along with restaurants,theaters,casinos etc.. And damn it they shut my gym down. Gotta see what weights and bars I have stashed in the garage.
I'm just going to be eating lots of hot New Mexican Chile and wait this out.
Be safe, wash your hands and wear gloves and masks if you have to go out.
What scares me is the info released on blood types can make the difference on how dangerous it can be. A type blood seems at the highest risk (rh +/- not a factor)
If it's true then I will definitely have to watch things.... France released info on treatment option with generics in use here already for years covidtrial.io has the details and are asking anyone in medical circles to share with everyone in health care to help save lives
Been out of work over 2 years so self isolated already 8D but I fear for my folks as they are in 70s now
Be safe out there
Type O has a significantly lower risk and I'm O negative - the universal donor.
So long as I test CoVid-19 negative the vampires in blue will have me on speed dial (as they have since 1969). Even if we were scrubed in for a procedure the lab-rats would hunt us O-negs down.
What do you think about discrepancy between deaths to infected in Germany (0,376%) vs Italy (9%) as of today.
Deaths in Germany are starting to go up in exponential curve, so it's not that Germans are more immune.
Deaths lag infections by a few weeks. So while Italian health is over capacity and German elderly have likely isolated sooner, what this shows is that there are likely far more infected and untested in Italy. Probably around half a million or more and probably the corona has been spreading Italy since mid January. This is also why probably containment is ineffective as they have considerable spread.
One interesting view is that in Italy, the number of elderly infected is much higher than anywhere else (https://medium.com/@andreasbackhausa...y-c4200a15a7bf).
Not stated by the other but from somewhere else: In Italy, many elderly live together with their (grown) children and/or share meals very often. So where 0-40yo people get infected a lot but suffer little, in Italy they take it hoe to parents. Also, Germany tests way more as I understand it.
In the US many seniors live independently, either in senior apartments or their own home.Quote:
Originally Posted by Umfriend
Senior apartments (which get federal govt subsidies so federal rules) are now on a Level 4 lockdown; residents are isolated from building staff - phone or email only unless absolutely necessary, restricted visitors (home health care for handicappers etc.), and everyone stays in their apartment. Strong recommendations against unnecessary trips outside - just essential shopping & medical visits. No social events.
It's driving my best buddy batty.
The seniors at really high risk are those in nursing homes, such as the debacle in Washington state. One staffer brings it in and it takes off through the residents. Somewhat similar to seniors living with an extended family.
They've been parroting in the French Press that more than 50% of the ER cases are under 60 years old.Quote:
Originally Posted by Umfriend
This is not just a 'old people will suffer' virus.
It affects everyone, young and old.
Young people are dying too.
I'm pretty active over on the ATS thread, even though there are a lot of nutjobs there (please don't say I said that).
http://www.abovetopsecret.com/forum/thread1258928/pg210
It is a good thread for updates though, even if you have to sift thorugh a biot of sh!t to get there.
Theres a lot less crap now the sh!t is hitting the fan.
I'm MonkeyBalls2 over there if anyone is wondering. (trying to be 'covert' but who gives a crap now)
Home update :
I'm in lock down with my parents (both over 70).
We are not going out, I went to the shops on last Thursday, and there was a queue outside, and they were only letting a few people in at a time.
Loads of TP and stuff, but no cat or dog food apart from dry Biscuits.
I worked from home last monday (first day back after two weeks of hols at home), not sure if I posted that here, and then on tuesday got the info that our contract was cancelled, so I'm still paid, just not at work for the moment.
Might get laid off at the end of the month, we'll see. Not bothered to much about it.
Don't expect to go out now until really, really need to.
Don't want to risk bringing something back to my parents.
The way this is going, and by the reactions of the entire world Govt's, this is bad. Really bad.
Stay Safe, Stay Home, and Stay Healthy.
This is not just the Flu, its much worse.
The only way to stop it, is to stop the spread.
Unfortunately, the US and the UK might just be too late for that.
I'm hoping France put the lockdown just in time, we'll see if that's the case.
As I said, lots of updates on the ATS thread (and lots of batsh!t crazy people, but less as the days go on).
You might just be able to help with updates from around the World.
Jez
Ventilator update
Ford, GM, and Tesla (with SpaceX) have received FDA regulatory waivers to produce ventilators.
Normally producers need qualification and there's a regulatory jungle, but there's no time for that so...partners.
GM is working with Ventec Life Systems of Seattle, WA, US.
Tesla & SpaceX are working with Medtronic of Dublin, Ireland.
Fiat-Chrysler, Ferrari and Italian parts maker Marelli are working with Siare Engineering of Bologna, Italy.
Ford is in "preliminary discussions" with US & UK ventilator producers.
Game on...
There was a terrible scene at work today. One coworker (otherwise calm factory floor guy in mid 40s) grabbed a knife from kitchen and wanted to harm himself. Two other guys restrained him, then ambulance was called. We then calmed the guy down, I brought glass of water and some wet towels. Allegedly he took a lot of prescribed antidepressants and was saying he came to work to say goodbye and told us to take care of his wife and kids. I told him that he needs to stay alive and strong for his family now. Then emergency doctor came and they took him to hospital.
Based on atmosphere at work - we're finishing tasks, while management has head in sand (2 weeks ago while I worked on VPN on my own initiative, they wanted service forms for Italy) and no leadership I predicted someone will snap any day now.
In a month or so scenes like this will be common in supermarkets. Staying home with families with barrage of bad news and economic uncertainty is badly affecting people's mental health.
I can beleive it.Quote:
Originally Posted by UtwigMU
You, Sir, are a Genuine Good Person.
Major props to the collegues who restrained him, it can't have been easy to make that decision.
All you get now is 100% 24/7 Coronavirus on TV News.
BUT, that is the world we now live in.
UK Has just gone on lockdown as well, same as us in the rest of Europe.
(About bloody time if you ask me, considering all the outdoors mingling they were doing this weekend.)
There is only one way to beat this right now, and that is to stop the spread.
Italy, may be on the decline, but the next few days, maybe week, will confirm or not.
The queues outside supermarkets tomorrow morning in the UK are likely to be worse than what we've seen so far unfortunately.
I hope i'm wrong, but considering how they've behaved so far, not holding my breath.
Stay Safe everyone.
Not sure if you can say the people were behaving badly, as there were no restrictions (and we don't know how it was presented in the country). The government was gambling on letting it spread to achieve group immunity (just like Netherlands). Now they realized the national healthcare would not be able to cope, so they are resorting to isolation. But they start this with a large number of infections...Quote:
Originally Posted by Evildead666