The daily number of people getting vaccinated is dropping a lot again in France. Seems like French Trump supporters are not swayed by the 'passe sanitaire'Quote:
Originally Posted by Umfriend
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The daily number of people getting vaccinated is dropping a lot again in France. Seems like French Trump supporters are not swayed by the 'passe sanitaire'Quote:
Originally Posted by Umfriend
I'd remind you that Trump initiated the Warp Speed vaccine development program, and suspended regulations which would get in the way.Quote:
Originally Posted by dZeus
Meanwhile, VP Harris wasn't so sure she'd take the vaccine if Trump approved it. Many blacks only heard the last part, which is part of the current problem.
https://youtu.be/-dAjCeMuXR0
This Detroit news report is about Black resistance due to the Tuskegee Study.
The State and local authorities are now recruiting Black clergy to get them to vaccinate. The clergy has a very large influence in their community.
https://youtu.be/a8TS2arCqOM
It is dropping in the Netherlands as well but that is also as really most of the willing had their 1st shot already and many the 2nd.Quote:
Originally Posted by dZeus
Do we think we'll have new general restrictions (so not just aimed at unvaccinated) in October or somesuch?
Here a government minister who was vaccinated tested positive recently and is in self isolation.
I think another lockdown is coming. Also I think public will become more aware that vaccinated can still get and spread Covid and already vaccinated + tested still go in quarantine in some abroad destinations already. People who got vaccinated thinking everything will be hunky dory will be a bit disappointed.
Am I the only one who remembers that initially the hope was that vaccinated people would not get seriously ill? I am sure there are sterilizing vaccines out there but I couldn't acually name one.
No, the idea is that vaccinated people "cannot catch or spread" Covid, so they can go in restaurants, theatres, airports, soccer matches without the need for 48h or newer test.
Iceland is 80% vaxed and they have more cases than in October 2020, less deaths though.
https://www.worldometers.info/corona...untry/iceland/
Israel is 80% vaxed, they have same amount of cases as close to peak in January 2021.
https://www.worldometers.info/corona...ountry/israel/
Large percentage to majority of hospitalized are vaccinated.
https://newsrescue.com/australia-isr...ly-vaccinated/
Yeah well, I think the idea was that R for vaccinated people would simply be low enough. With a variant that is 3 times as infectious, that remains to be seen. No spreading at all is less likely if you don't get ill before becoming infectious I would think (as the immune system is no yet fully activated then?). Sure, that seems to work for many other illnesses (measles, smallpox etc) but there people tend to not become infectious so soon after exposure. I fear we'll just have to live with it and I expect any restrictions will be lifted eventually for vaccinated people.
Good article in The Washington Post about how NIH director Collins and Fauci undercut the rules restricting gain of function research (which led to Fauci's group funding it at the Wuhan lab.)
https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/us/a-...ows/ar-AANLOZ0
Quote:
A science in the shadows
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The Post identified at least 18 projects that won funding from 2012 to 2020 that appeared to include gain-of-function experiments. Reporters examined research summaries in the database, along with articles published in scientific journals, and conducted interviews with experts.
Funding from NIH for the 18 projects totaled about $48.8 million and unfolded at 13 institutions. Eight were approved after the review committee’s power was weakened in 2017.
From 2017 to 2020, no more than “three or four†projects were forwarded to the review committee, said Robert Kadlec, who oversaw the panel and served as the Trump administration’s assistant HHS secretary for preparedness and response.
“They were grading their own homework,†Kadlec said.
Kadlec, a physician who earlier had held biodefense roles with the Pentagon, the White House and the Senate, said that the high-risk research has not been adequately vetted.
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“If you’re going to ask society to take on a higher-than-normal level of risk, then I think there’s got to be more openness,†said Michael J. Imperiale, a University of Michigan virologist who served from 2005 to 2012 on the biosecurity board and who now is editor in chief of mBio, a journal of the American Society for Microbiology.
Skeptics of gain-of-function research question whether it is worth the risk.
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I'm wondering why doesn't this ring any bells:
Fact: virus is man-made in Wuhan lab
Fact: virus was leaked, occham's razor points to incompetence rather than malice
Now remember what happened to Saddam because of his nonexistent WMDs or when some Russian officials get sanctioned for building a gas pipeline. Covid affected far greater number of people than any other disaster in past 30 years yet there is no outcry, sanctions
I've been critical of Fauci because of his muddled, often contradictory, messaging. This alone has caused some vaccine resistance, then the other stuff broke...
These are "facts"?Quote:
Originally Posted by UtwigMU
Look up covid patient zero.
OK, first hit: https://www.globaltimes.cn/page/202108/1232649.shtml Not sure how that helps.
Global Times is published by the ChiCom's party propaganda rag, The People's Daily.Quote:
Originally Posted by Umfriend
I realized that. Just saying that looking up stuff nowadays gets you to all kinds of nonsense. I'm sure there is decent info out there, I just wonder where.
This won't help vaccination rates ¯\_(ツ)_/¯
https://www.msn.com/en-gb/health/med...cid=uxbndlbing
Quote:
CDC study estimates over 80% of Americans are protected from COVID-19
About 83 percent of the U.S. population ages 16 and up has some degree of immunity to the coronavirus from vaccination or prior infection, a new Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) study estimates.
Based on antibody levels in about 1.4 million patients' blood samples, CDC researchers estimated that 20 percent of Americans have immunity from prior infection - though the number varies by age and other demographics. The other 60 per cent have received a shot which confers similar immunity.
Experts previously cited 70 to 80 percent protection as a goal for herd immunity, but now many say we need more vaccinations and boosters to protect against the super-contagious Indian 'Delta' variant.
Still, the study indicates that the U.S. has had a lot more Covid cases than those that have been officially reported - possibly more than double the official count.
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We have 43% vaccinated and 13% officially infected, more likely 25% based on 4000 deaths. So around half or more people have some kind of immunity but compared to this time last year we have more infections.
Now government made it mandatory to have test/recovered/vaccinated to dine outside.
Here the states which had low vaccination rates are picking up steam, now mostly among the top tier. Likely a combination of Delta, Pfizer-BioNTech's full FDA approval, and Moderna's pending full approval. Approval status; emergency release vs full approval, has been one of the major factors in vaccine resistance.
In the Netherlands, about 75% [of all 12yo and older] have been fully vaccinated but the 12-18yo subsection at 34% is still rising (they were last in line and many are still waiting for the 2nd shot). Unfortunately, positive tests and hospitalizations have been stable for over a month now (instead of declining). I fear we're going to have a terrible winter.
FDA approval for 12-15 year olds happened in May, and we're still lagging.
https://www.timesofisrael.com/study-...than-vaccines/
Study: COVID recovery gave Israelis longer-lasting Delta defense than vaccines
Quote:
People who had two vaccine shots had a six-fold higher chance of getting infected with Delta than patients who hadn’t been vaccinated but previously contracted the coronavirus, according to the research.
75.6% of US adults with at least one vaccination, and kids vaccines coming out in Q4.
CDC tracker from Sept 10 seems to show a slight decline in average cases...
https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tra...nds_dailycases
Attachment 6675
https://time.com/6097391/covid-19-bo...not-necessary/
Quote:
COVID-19 Vaccine Boosters Are Not Necessary Yet, Say Top Health Officials
In a viewpoint published in the Lancet, leading health officials from around the world say booster doses of the COVID-19 vaccine aren’t necessary yet.
“Current evidence does not … appear to show a need for boosting in the general population, in which [vaccine] efficacy against severe disease remains high,†the authors write.
The health authorities say some people, including those with weakened immune systems, may need booster doses to heighten their protection against COVID-19, but that data supporting the need to give the general population additional doses aren’t convincing at this point.
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Interesting. They also sayKnowledge on this virus remains sketchy I guess.Quote:
For example, much-cited research from Israel shows dropping levels of immunity and higher rates of breakthrough infections in recent months. However, that research shows breakthrough infections were higher among people vaccinated in January and April than those vaccinated in February and March, which doesn’t seem to follow any obvious scientific rationale.
Right now we have 45% double vaccinated, 50+% vaccinated at least once and the numbers (infected per day, hospitals, intensive care) are the same as they were in October. Officially recovered are at 13%, likely more.
1/4 of hospitalized are vaccinated so it's around 60-70% less likely to need hospital for vaccinated. But despite half of population having vaccine or recovered protection the cases curve is same with one month headstart compared to last year.
Now they've made it illegal to do almost anything without test, vax or recovered. Even public transit and entering gas stations and shopping malls. You can only visit groceries only stores.
The daughter of coworker from the start of this thread passed away from cancer. It was traditional open casket funeral. Really sad scene, was shocked. Also shocked at the way some other coworkers conducted themselves on funeral with small talk like they are on ****ing lunch. If I die I don't want these f*ckers anywhere near my funeral.
This. Delta is simply way more contagious than whatever variant we had back then (wasn't that still the original one, even before the UK virus came along?).Quote:
Originally Posted by UtwigMU
I'm not too worried about this winter, unless another variant emerges on short order that escapes the antibodies generated by the most common vaccines (Pfizer, Astra-Zeneca).Quote:
Originally Posted by Umfriend
Israel's recent confirmed cases data looks pretty dramatic, but the number of deaths remains pretty muted so far.
I hope risk appetite increases a bit in the western world, as the health care systems seem to no longer be at risk of saturation with covid patients. We'll need to live to learn with Covid being an endemic infectious disease.
Hopefully we'll have better treatment options in future, to deal with any new waves of variants that escape existing immunity.
Based on data from UK and Israel delta seems more virulent and less deadly, requiring less hospitalizations.
I too think disease will become endemic but to what extent governments will continue to mismanage and exploit it for povergrabs remains to be seen.
The news coming from about draconian lockdowns and Police violence in Australia - Australia has always been a chill place and Australians are the easygoing people I like meeting most on travels - is downright chilling.
Hmmm I read hospital admission for unvaccinated people with Delta is twice as likely as with alpha, based on Scottish data.Quote:
Originally Posted by UtwigMU
Wouldn't a more obvious reason for the effects of delta being more muted in Israel and the UK be the result of a higher proportion of the population having antibodies now vs. with previous infection waves?
If anything, you'll need to compare the effects in a country with very small share of population being vaccinated and/or having had covid prior to the delta wave.
Israeli data shows that people having recovered have higher and longer lasting immunity than vaccinated.
Sweden vs Israel with similar vaccination rate shows that Sweden has a lot less cases.
https://www.fastrope.com/israel-vs-s...aphs-dont-lie/
https://www.zerohedge.com/covid-19/w...sweden-anymore
Similar vaccination rates, different results (although they could be in different phases of the curve). In Israel in summer they have a lot of visiting expats and pilgrims.
I think we'll get to the point of herd immunity by the end of this wave. Also new medicines for treatment are coming.
Israel is going in lockdown again despite high vaccination rate.
Of course Sweden has lower numbers of cases, they're completely different in terms of population density and culture of social distancing. I don't really get your point, vaccination and immunity from recovery are not an 'either or'. Knowingly at risk population doesn't really want to take chances with the expected complications, and why not get vaccinated if you might be at risk but don't know it?Quote:
Originally Posted by UtwigMU
As covid is endemic, you have to get your immune system trained somehow. I rather first train it with a vaccine that has much lower chances of complications.
Risk appetite is indeed something that can be open for discussion, but only really an option for countries with low population density or high vaccination rates.
A tolerance for risk in a small nation like Sweden is one thing, it having a similar population to Michigan at 10+ million, but in a nation of 328 million (US) gaining herd immunity partly by infection risks generating new and vaccine resistant strains.Quote:
Originally Posted by dZeus
On the Moderna front,
• after 120 days the Gen 1 Moderna vaccine is more effective at preventing hospitalization than Pfizer/BioNTech or J&J vaccines. That said, both mRNA vaccines are significantly ahead of the conventional J&J vaccine.
https://www.tampabay.com/news/health...spitalization/
• their Gen 2 vaccine prototype will attempt to generate neutralizing immunity, blocking the part of the spike protein which bonds to the target cell. It'll also store in a standard refrigerator.
Both Moderna and Pfizer/BioNTech are close to a vaccine for 5-11 year olds, who have been driving US numbers higher as they returned to school.
Slovenia: government introduces mandatory vax/testing/recovered for everything including gas stations and doctor visits (state only health system).
Test costs 10-12€, valid for 2 days. It's a burden for low income familes - eg a cashier told me it costs her 30 EUR to take kids to dentist and cashier here earns around nett 1000 EUR monthly.
Since J&J Janssen is only one shot although not the most effective it gives you green pass the quickest - with Pfizer it's only 2 weeks after 2nd shot. Demand for Janssen surges.
Yesterday 20-y old woman died of stroke and brain hemorrhage couple of days after being vaccinated with Janssen. Since start only one 18-21y old person died of covid according to official data (which I have no reason to doubt).
So vaccinating 15-24y olds with J&J resulted in same mortality as Covid. 30k officially got infected (likely 3-times more as not all mild cases are caught by testing). One of them died. You are twice as likely to die from lightning strike in your lifetime as from Covid in 15-24y group. Yet government insists on vaccinating everyone.
They want to make vaccination mandatory for state workers now and talking about making it mandatory for all workers with decree (not law passed by legislators) despite no pandemic or extraordinary measures declared. Constitutional court will decide tomorrow.
Requiring vaccination or proof of recovery is, for the young segment of the population, primarily not about reducing deaths at individual level, but at societal level as the occurence of breakthrough infections is much lower in the fully vaccinated population.Quote:
Originally Posted by UtwigMU
Whether such a mandate is ethical is another question. I'd much rather have governments make more of an effort to convince people to take vaccination without forcing them, and combat misinformation without resorting to censorship.
As for avoiding costs of PCR tests: maybe unvaccinated could resort to organizing and attending 'covid parties' in order to get infected with and recover from Covid? Parents of young children have done similar things with regards to some infectious childhood diseases for a long time.
I think that this will lead to evolution of strain that is resistant to vaccine as vaccine is not sterilizing.
Of course it's easier for politicians to say, get 70 or 97% depending on country vaxed and everything will go back to normal than to say: Now this is not the end. It is not even the beginning of the end. But it is, perhaps, the end of the beginning.
Then once we get to situation like Singapore with 80% vax rate and 2000 new Covid cases per day they will invent new things to say as we go along.
https://www.worldometers.info/corona...try/singapore/
https://ourworldindata.org/covid-vaccinations
According to article you posted, 1 in 59 vaccinated infected needs hospitalization, while for unvaccinated it's 1 in 46.
I think you are right UtwigMU: They are playing Whack-A-Mole with a virus which is known for mutations. I really don't think that extending hopes for a Vaccine-based solution is viable at this point. Israel and Singapore are highly Vaxxed, yet their numbers continue to climb at higher-than-modeled rates, and clinically-observed re-infection rates show a definite pattern of diminishing returns for ongoing immunity and general Vaccine Efficacy. At this point, the only thing that is consistently good about COVID Vaccines in general are the quarterly sales of the Drug Companies. I think there has been a considerable erosion in confidence in the Medical Mass Media... to the point where YT has stopped "discussion" on the matter entirely (as of this morning, 2021-09-29).
Well it's impossible to make Covid disappear, considering its mutation rate.
The pfizer and astra zeneca vaccines perform pretty decently today considering they were developed for the original strain in 2019.
As for hospitalisation rates, those are likely the raw figures not normalized for age and comorbidities. It's most likely that the elderly and vulnerable have been vaccinated, while young people run much lower risk when unvaccinated.
They've bought time to hopefully be able to provide therapeutic treatment of covid patients (preventing the cytokine stom appears essential), while reducing overload of the healthcare systems by providing some base immunity against covid.
If anything, the the latest figures from Israel show the success of the vaccine.
The best that we can hope for is that covid will mutate into a harmless seasonal common cold variety, much like HCoV-OC43.
https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/70/...mm7038e3-H.pdf
Table 2 from this study:
After 4-6 months attack rate among vaccinated is 89, while among unvaccinated is 93. Basically after 6 months protection from vaccine vanes.