Russian launch failures - the fallout

[Dr Mordrid]

Yesterday the Soyuz/Progress ISS resupply launch failed due to an upper stage malfunction.

Link....

Making matters worse is that there have been 2 straight failures of the Briz-M upper stage on their Proton rocket, the most recent being last week when a big telecommunications satellite was lost.

Because of there being so much commonality between Progress and Soyuz TMA launches, a prolonged investigation into these failures could delay both Soyuz TMA crew replacement and Progress cargo flights to the ISS. Fortunately the last shuttle flight took up some extra supplies, but the next Progress was also to take up needed new docking hardware.

There has been much concern the last few years about quality control slipping in the Russian program, and this isn't going to alleviate those concerns.

This ratchets up the pressure to get SpaceX's Dragon C2/C3 flight to ISS as soon as possible. Already plans have begun to put at least 800 kg of cargo on the Nov. 30 test flight to help make up for the Progress failure, with more possible.

Also being mentioned is the need for a Crew Dragon to get out of the barn ASAP as it's the closest crew ship to completion. This will require the Super Draco launch escape/landing thrusters, which start testing at White Sands soon.

It also highlights the importance of having multiple spacecraft available for both cargo and crew duties.

[Dr Mordrid]

It's hit the fan - there are already calls in and out of Congress to increase funding to the US Commercial Crew and Commercial Cargo programs, transferring as yet unallocated funds from other programs if necessary. Also, this from Russia -

RIA Novosti....

MOSCOW, August 24 (RIA Novosti)

Russia may fail to fulfill its obligations in delivering crews to the International Space Station after Wednesday's accident with Russia's Progress M-12M space freighter, a source in Russia's space industry said.

The space freighter fell in South Siberia's Altai Republic on Wednesday after failing to separate from the Soyuz-U carrier rocket, the first loss of the Progress freighter in the history of Russia’s space industry. A rocket engine failure is believed to have caused the accident.

"The scheduled launches of the [Soyuz] rockets are likely to be suspended because of the space freighter accident... until the reasons [of the accident] are established," the source said.

This means that members of the International Space Station's crew are likely to stay at the station longer than planned and that the new crew will not be able to replace them on schedule, he said.

After the retirement of the U.S. shuttle fleet earlier this summer, Russian Soyuz craft became the only way for astronauts to reach the ISS until at least the middle of the decade. NASA is paying its Russian counterpart Roscosmos more than $1 billion for crew transport services over the next four years.

The Soyuz-U carrier rocket blasted off from the Baikonur Space Center in Kazakhstan and was scheduled to separate at 5:09 p.m. Moscow time [13:09 GMT]. The source said the engine failure made it impossible for the spacecraft to achieve the required orbital velocity.

The Progress freighter was insured for 3 billion rubles ($103 million) by the Russian Insurance Center company, its representative said.

The space freighter was to deliver 2.7 tons of food, medical and scientific equipment, and other items to the ISS, the source said.

Russian space agency Roscosmos promised that the failure to deliver food to the ISS would not affect its crew, saying that food stocks on board the ISS were enough to sustain the crew for a “long time.”

Russian cosmonauts Andrei Borisenko, Alexander Samokutyayev and Sergei Volkov, as well as NASA astronauts Ronald Garan and Michael Fossum and Japanese astronaut Satoshi Furukawa are currently working on the ISS.

The next Progress cargo ship will not fly to the ISS before late September-early October, Gennady Raikunov, head of the Central Scientific Research Institute of Machine Manufacturing, said.

A special commission was created from representatives of Roscosmos and other space industry organizations to investigate the accident.

Russia has carried out more than 130 successful launches of Progress space freighters since they entered service in 1972.

Wednesday's accident is the second spacecraft loss for the Russian space industry in within a week. On August 18, the Express AM-4 telecommunications satellite failed to separate from the Proton-M carrier rocket and could not reach the designated orbit.

[UtwigMU]

So if the 2nd rocket fails, they will have to bail?

It would be better from a reliability POW to have another ISS cargo system besides Progress operational.


Also this is strange since Soyuz/Progress is ancient and has been very reliable. It's the most reliable rocket AFAIK - kind of Lada of space

[Dr Mordrid]

If you mean that if the 2nd stage fails - it depends on how it fails. If it doesn't ignite, gets shut down by the computer for an anomaly etc. they use the launch abort sysyem to separate and pull them away, after which they can land. If it fails catastrophically the escape system sensors fire it and either they get away or get shredded (not likely as the Soyuz escape system is FAST.) Which ever it's a very rough high-G ride.

From the US point of view we want 2 under contract to NASA for crew services, but if all 3 of the leading candidates (Dragon, Dream Chaser & CST-100) fly even the "loser" will have a use flying to the Bigelow Alpha station and doing passenger joyrides, private & university experimental payloads etc. and could do backups for NASA.

Dragon is pretty much a lock because of their rapid progress, beyond Earth orbit and other advanced capabilities; Dream Chaser has advantages for evac service and delicate payloads; and CST-100 runs 3rd only because of its limited on-orbit duration and late start.

[UtwigMU]

I mean 2nd as in September/October launch. The astronauts on ISS have about 3-4 months worth of provisions. If the September/October launch doesn't deliver, they will have to bail space station. There are Soyuz capsules docked, so they can come to Earth.

There is also no more Spaces Shuttle and AFAIK the new delivery system for ISS is not yet online.