Blu-Ray currently outselling HD-DVD 2 to 1

[Hulk]

http://www.tgdaily.com/2007/02/01/bluray_beating_hddvd_nielsen/

Also note the author predicts total BR sales overtaking HD-DVD in about a month.

Warning: Stupid half-joking comment follows.

I always though "Blu-Ray" the cooler name over HD-DVD. From a marketing perspective HD-DVD implies (to me) half-backed new format that is still based on old DVD technology.

Forget about it making sense, it doesn't. But from a marketing point of view I think the promoter of HD-DVD thought they would build on the strong DVD name. Instead I think people are thinking of it as an attempt to update inherently old technology.

Blu-Ray sounds like the future. Blue is cool.

[Jerry Jones]

The author predicts total BR sales overtaking HD-DVD in about a month.

Apparently, that author failed to read what this author has to say:

Link to PC Magazine: http://tinyurl.com/38x7e8

Although the graphs seem to indicate a considerable decline on the part of HD DVD in favor of Blu-Ray, this isn't true at all: to date (Jan. 28), 53.3 percent of all next-gen DVDs have been in the HD DVD format, compared to 46.7 percent for Blu-ray. This contrasts quite strongly with reports that the Blu-Ray format is widely outselling HD DVD.

Jerry Jones

http://www.jonesgroup.net

[Dr Mordrid]

Not to mention that BR's are mainly being sold in PS3 game systems, not as entertainment center decks. The latter is where the rubber hits the road, and even so in these parts PS3's are getting distributed to stores but remaining unsold.

[Jerry Jones]

Not to mention that BR's are mainly being sold in PS3 game systems, not as entertainment center decks. The latter is where the rubber hits the road, and even so in these parts PS3's are getting distributed to stores but remaining unsold.

Yep.

And the other reason for the recent spike in Blu-ray Disc sales would seem to be due to -- guess what -- a gift certificate included with Sony Playstation 3 game consoles.

According to Erin Crawford, the general manager of Neilsen VideoScan, the bundling of Talledaga Nights – and, by inference, King Kong – was not included in the Nielsen numbers, as it does not represent a conscious buying choice on the part of the consumer. However, since a consumer must make the choice to buy another disc, the effects of the gift certificate would influence the Neilsen numbers. Crawford declined to estimate how many disc sales could have been a direct result of the gift certificate. Also, the Blu-Ray sales do not include the sales of games.

And this:

I think it's safe to say that the gift certificate is the reason for the sudden spike in Blu-ray disc sales, even if Crawford will not. As this USA Today article notes:

"Most people spend their gift cards in January and February. And because retailers can't count gift card sales until the cards are redeemed, those sales dollars are pushed out of December into the next year. Gift card sales now represent 5% of total holiday sales, so those dollars are having a significant impact on retailers' business in the months after Christmas. About 40% of card redemptions are made in the first week after Christmas. But the rest comes in January or early February."

This seems to be consistent with the curves as indicated by the graphs: a dramatic run-up in Blu-ray sales in January, followed by a flattening of the curve in late January.

The author predicts:

If this is true and the gift certificates indicate an aberration, rather than a trend, then I would think we would see the Blu-ray numbers continue to flatten, followed by a decline, complemented by a resurgence in the HD DVD unit share.

Jerry Jones

http://www.jonesgroup.net

[Hulk]

Sony learned a lesson from Microsoft when they practically gave DOS away. Initial market penetration, the profit will follow once that occurs.

Also this article predicts widespread HDTV penetration in 4 years.

http://www.dailytech.com/article.aspx?newsid=6038

[Hulk]

Yep.

And the other reason for the recent spike in Blu-ray Disc sales would seem to be due to -- guess what -- a gift certificate included with Sony Playstation 3 game consoles.



And this:



The author predicts:



Jerry Jones
http://www.jonesgroup.net

This author definitely shows his bias in this analysis.

First of all he doesn't say that perhaps Sony has a good plan in getting as many BR players out there as possible? I wonder why he wouldn't mention that? Obviously he has a bias for HD-DVD.

Then he makes no reference to the fact that even if BR player units fall from this current high that BR disc sales would most likely increase due to the number of players out there.

Do I think BR is the better format? Yes. Why?

More capacity per layer and faster seek times.

I think that for either format the price of players and recordable discs will be low enough eventually (like CD and DVD) to be meaningless.

[Dr Mordrid]

BETA was technically a better tape format too and we all know how thet turned out; consumers chose VHS based on recording time of the cassette, totally blindsiding the "experts".

Also; his review was no more 'unbalanced' than the pro-BR stuff. It just so happens he's probably correct about the market aberration...and he's just enjoying the reporting of it

[Jerry Jones]

VHS won because it was cheaper.

If either high definition DVD format is to win, it must be cheap.

In that respect, "HD DVD" is significantly less expensive than "Blu-ray Disc," but still provides equal picture quality and "enough" storage for most people.

They both produce stunning picture quality.

DVD-RAM was also the most technically superior format of the various standard definition DVD formats.

It didn't win because it wasn't the most inexpensive.

The inexpensive formats "won."

Although DVD-RAM has been making somewhat of a comeback in recent months.

http://www.ramprg.com/en/index.html

Hitachi's newest hybrid DVD-RAM/HDD camcorders have been a big hit:

http://www.camcorderinfo.com/content/Hitachi-Brings-Hybrid-DVDHDD-to-the-US.htm

Jerry Jones

http://www.jonesgroup.net

[Jerry Jones]

This author definitely shows his bias in this analysis.

I disagree because the author clearly states his opinion -- at the end of his piece -- that neither format has achieved "critical mass."

He isn't saying "Blu-ray Disc" is winning.

He isn't saying "HD DVD" is winning either -- however -- he does point to the clearly significant numbers that show that "HD DVD" discs and players sold to date outnumber the "Blu-ray Disc" discs and players.

That's a fact.

And he offers a rational theory about why the figures for the most recent month of sales show a spike in "Blu-ray Disc" sales -- the gift certificate.

No, he doesn't brag about Sony handing out the gift certificates.

He leaves the bragging up to those of you who think that marketing device might somehow tip the balance.

I personally doubt that it will.

Jerry Jones

http://www.jonesgroup.net

[Hulk]

Jerry,

I don't want to get into this again. We both don't have the time for it. I thought it obvious that Sony is trying to flood the market with BR by using the PS3 as a vehicle and the author should note not only that but the fact that it will definitely help them in their fight. This is slanted reporting when you ignore why a manufacturer is doing something and if it will have a positive effect on their bottom line. He refuses to acknowledge that point. He avoids it. He only says the surge is temporary.

Yeah but if they get 50 times the number of HD-DVD players out there that temporary surge will be enough. I'm not saying that will happen just that he should have commented on it if he really wanted to present a fair analysis.

I still think that if either format reaches critical mass cost won't matter. But having the additional capacity and speed of BR certainly will soon enough. Shoot I could use some 50GB or larger discs right not.

Okay I sort of got "into it" again. I apologize and concede you have good points too.

One thing though. I see BR recorders/players for computers are $600. Are HD-DVD units available that are cheaper? Or are you referring to stand-alone players?

[Jerry Jones]

I thought it obvious that Sony is trying to flood the market with BR by using the PS3 as a vehicle and the author should note not only that but the fact that it will definitely help them in their fight.

I really think you should have another look at what the author is saying, Mark.

If you read what he wrote carefully, you will note that he never intended to say anything about Playstation 3 Game Consoles.

He -- instead -- pointed to the inclusion of a gift certificate that can be used toward purchase of another Blu-ray Disc title.

In other words, the marketing device that caused the spike was not the Playstation 3... it was the gift certificate that came with it.

That's why -- in his view -- the latest sales numbers for Blu-ray Disc titles showed a surge.

People were redeeming those gift certificates.

Sounds logical to me.

Jerry Jones

http://www.jonesgroup.net

[wkulecz]

Sony learned a lesson from Microsoft when they practically gave DOS away. Initial market penetration, the profit will follow once that occurs.

Not quite, this strategy only works if you also succeed in driving your competitors out of business.

--wally.

[Hulk]

Jerry,

Yes, I should read closer.


Wally,

I really don't want to debate capitalism. I thought that Microsoft's first really savvy business move was to offer their OS at a much lower price point than the competitors. I was simply comparing that business tactic to Sony's current one.