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  • "Scientists say 2007 may be warmest yet!"

    Got to stock up on the cold beer.


    Scientists say 2007 may be warmest yet


    By RAPHAEL G. SATTER, Associated Press Writer
    Thu Jan 4, 6:05 PM ET



    Deepening drought in Australia. Stronger typhoons in Asia. Floods in Latin America. British climate scientists predict that a resurgent El Nino climate trend combined with higher levels of greenhouse gases could touch off a fresh round of ecological disasters — and make 2007 the world's hottest year on record.

    "Even a moderate (El Nino) warming event is enough to push the global temperatures over the top," said Phil Jones, director of the Climatic Research unit at the University of East Anglia.

    The warmest year on record is 1998, when the average global temperature was 1.2 degrees Fahrenheit higher than the long-term average of 57 degrees. Though such a change appears small, incremental differences can, for example, add to the ferocity of storms by evaporating more steam off the ocean.

    There is a 60 percent chance that the average global temperature for 2007 will match or break the record, Britain's Meteorological Office said Thursday. The consequences of the high temperatures could be felt worldwide.

    El Nino, which is now under way in the Pacific Ocean and is expected to last until May, occurs irregularly. But when it does, winters in Southeast Asia tend to become milder, summers in Australia get drier, and Pacific storms can be more intense. The U.N.'s Food Aid Organization has warned that rising temperatures could wreak agricultural havoc.

    In Australia, which is struggling through its worst drought on record, the impact on farmers could be devastating. The country has already registered its smallest wheat harvest in a decade, food prices are rising, and severe water restrictions have put thousands of farmers at risk of bankruptcy.

    In other cases, El Nino's effects are more ambiguous. Rains linked to the phenomenon led to bumper crops in Argentina in 1998, but floods elsewhere in Latin America devastated subsistence farmers.

    El Nino also can do some good. It tends to take the punch out of the Atlantic hurricane season by generating crosswinds that can rip the storms apart — good news for Florida's orange growers, for example.

    "The short-term effects of global warming on crop production are very uneven," said Daniel Hillel, a researcher at Columbia University's Center for Climate Systems Research. "I warn against making definitive predictions regarding any one season's weather."

    What is clear is that the cumulative effect of El Nino and global warming are taking the Earth's temperatures to record heights.

    "El Nino is an independent variable," Jones said. "But the underlying trends in the warming of the Earth is almost certainly a result of the release of carbon dioxide into the atmosphere."

    Another more immediate effect of the rising temperatures may be political.

    Australian Prime Minister John Howard is already under fire for refusing to link his country's drought to global warming. In Britain, Friends of the Earth campaign director Mike Childs said the weather service's 2007 prediction "underlined the gap between the government's rhetoric and action."

    Other environmental groups said the new report added weight to the movement to control greenhouse gases.

    It came a day after the weather service reported that 2006 had been Britain's warmest year since 1659, and three months after Sir Nicholas Stern, a senior government economist, estimated that the effects of climate change could eventually cost nations 5 percent to 20 percent of global gross domestic product each year.

    Figures for 2006 are not yet complete, but the weather service said temperatures were high enough to rank among the top 10 hottest years on record.

    "The evidence that we're doing something very dangerous with the climate is now amassing," said Campaign against Climate Change coordinator Philip Thornhill.

    "We need to put the energy and priority (into climate change) that is being put into a war effort," he said. "It's a political struggle to get action done — and these reports help."

    ___

    On the Net:

    Britain's Meteorological Office: http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/

    U.N. Food Aid Organization's Climate Site: http://www.fao.org/clim/


    Diplomacy, it's a way of saying “nice doggie”, until you find a rock!

  • #2
    I don't pretend to know what the cause could be for all this global warming but I can't believe how warm it was in Toronto all day today.

    And on the way home it was raining. RAINING! On January 4th! When I was a kid we'd have at least a foot and maybe more of snow on the ground at this time.
    P.S. You've been Spanked!

    Comment


    • #3
      We've been having an early Jamuary thaw here. Highs since tuesday have averaged in the 40's (F). Should all come to an end though once the big arctic front rolls down from northern Canada, unless it trends east, in which case brace yourself, Schmo. Come to think of it, you may want to brace yourself anyway.

      Kevin

      Comment


      • #4
        WTF!!!

        yesterday was a high of 6c, today it was 9c, tomorrow it's 12c and sunday it's 13c.

        it's January!!! WHAT THE ****?!?!

        it's raining, we had a little snow from christmass but that is MELTING!

        Just for perspective, ottawa is the 3rd coldest capital in the world... warmest it should get this time of year is -20c. IT"S ****ING 9 degrees!!!

        it really feels like late march or april. what the hell is up with this weather.
        /meow
        Intel Core 2 Quad Q6600
        Asus Striker ][
        8GB Corsair XMS2 DDR2 800 (4x2GB)
        Asus EN8800GT 512MB x2(SLI)

        I am C4tX0r, hear me mew!

        Comment


        • #5
          I just thought I should tell you all, i am freezing my ass off here
          Juu nin to iro


          English doesn't borrow from other languages. It follows them down dark alleys, knocks them over, and goes through their pockets for loose grammar.

          Comment


          • #6
            Ottawa weather for the past 10years

            Weather Underground provides local & long-range weather forecasts, weather reports, maps & tropical weather conditions for locations worldwide


            Jan 5th 2007:
            Mean Temperature - -
            Max Temperature 44 °F / 7 °C
            Min Temperature 44 °F / 7 °C

            2006:
            Mean Temperature 25 °F / -3 °C
            Max Temperature 30 °F / 0 °C
            Min Temperature 20 °F / -6 °C

            2005:
            Mean Temperature 10 °F / -12 °C
            Max Temperature 14 °F / -9 °C
            Min Temperature 5 °F / -15 °C

            2004:
            Mean Temperature 16 °F / -8 °C
            Max Temperature 19 °F / -7 °C
            Min Temperature 12 °F / -11 °C

            2003:
            Mean Temperature 24 °F / -4 °C
            Max Temperature 26 °F / -3 °C
            Min Temperature 21 °F / -6 °C

            2002:
            Mean Temperature 30 °F / -0 °C
            Max Temperature 33 °F / 1 °C
            Min Temperature 28 °F / -2 °C

            2001:
            Mean Temperature 12 °F / -10 °C
            Max Temperature 19 °F / -7 °C
            Min Temperature 8 °F / -13 °C

            2000:
            Mean Temperature 12 °F / -11 °C
            Max Temperature 17 °F / -8 °C
            Min Temperature 6 °F / -14 °C

            1999:
            Mean Temperature 2 °F / -17 °C
            Max Temperature 10 °F / -12 °C
            Min Temperature -7 °F / -22 °C

            1998:
            Mean Temperature 21 °F / -6 °C
            Max Temperature 28 °F / -2 °C
            Min Temperature 14 °F / -10 °C

            1997:
            Mean Temperature 34 °F / 1 °C
            Max Temperature 39 °F / 4 °C <--- Last record year!!!
            Min Temperature 28 °F / -2 °C
            /meow
            Intel Core 2 Quad Q6600
            Asus Striker ][
            8GB Corsair XMS2 DDR2 800 (4x2GB)
            Asus EN8800GT 512MB x2(SLI)

            I am C4tX0r, hear me mew!

            Comment


            • #7
              Beware! Don't confuse weather with climate!!!!
              Brian (the devil incarnate)

              Comment


              • #8
                Beware, it's 4am and you can go outside with just a shirt and rolled up sleeves.

                ...it's still raining.
                /meow
                Intel Core 2 Quad Q6600
                Asus Striker ][
                8GB Corsair XMS2 DDR2 800 (4x2GB)
                Asus EN8800GT 512MB x2(SLI)

                I am C4tX0r, hear me mew!

                Comment


                • #9
                  2007 is confirmed to be the warmest year in Belgium...

                  Various months have broken records too: some were the hottest, others the wettest (August), least sunshine, least frost days, ... Various plants actually started blossoming again in November!
                  At present, we are about 4°C above the long term average for this period.

                  Brian is right about the weather/climate difference, but the trend that has been going on for the last decade (in correlation to the historical obeservations) has caused the weather forecasters to start speaking of a climate change.


                  Jörg
                  pixar
                  Dream as if you'll live forever. Live as if you'll die tomorrow. (James Dean)

                  Comment


                  • #10
                    Originally posted by VJ View Post
                    2007 is confirmed to be the warmest year in Belgium...
                    Wow, we're still in January in Norway.

                    On a more serious note: Yes I can feel the difference here too. Where is the snow? Highs of 10C in January? When I was a kid we always had snow at this time. Haven't even put on the studded tires on the car yet...
                    Last edited by jms; 5 January 2007, 08:00.

                    Comment


                    • #11
                      yeah its been raining here more ofttn than uasal.... here as in the UAE,,.... and when in leb i've noticed the difrence in climate and late winters years ago
                      "They say that dreams are real only as long as they last. Couldn't you say the same thing about life?"

                      Comment


                      • #12
                        Originally posted by schmosef View Post

                        And on the way home it was raining. RAINING! On January 4th! When I was a kid we'd have at least a foot and maybe more of snow on the ground at this time.

                        Same here. And you want to talk about rain??????

                        Precipitation:

                        Yesterday - 1.53in/3.9cm

                        Month to date - 1.54in !

                        Check out today's warning for Chicago:

                        332 AM CST FRI JAN 05 2007

                        THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE THORN CREEK AT THORNTON * UNTIL SATURDAY MORNING. * AT 3 AM FRIDAY THE STAGE WAS 10.3 FEET. * MINOR FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST. * FLOOD STAGE IS 10.0 FEET. * THE RIVER WILL CONTINUE RISING TO NEAR 11.5 FEET BY THIS AFTERNOON. THE RIVER WILL FALL BELOW FLOOD STAGE SATURDAY MORNING.



                        Today's forcest:

                        52F/11C and more rain later on.... .


                        .
                        Diplomacy, it's a way of saying “nice doggie”, until you find a rock!

                        Comment


                        • #13
                          Originally posted by Brian Ellis View Post
                          Beware! Don't confuse weather with climate!!!!

                          Yeah, I know. But they they are related, aren't they?


                          .
                          Diplomacy, it's a way of saying “nice doggie”, until you find a rock!

                          Comment


                          • #14
                            Going to be 65F tommorow where I live...amazing

                            I think this is going to be the first winter in my area since 98 that we didnt get any snow. All the snow we got was the first day of spring and it was about an inch.
                            Why is it called tourist season, if we can't shoot at them?

                            Comment


                            • #15
                              Back to the topic......



                              China's largest lake may vanish in 200 years

                              China's largest lake, holy to Tibetans but suffering from global warming and desertification, may vanish in two centuries even as the government pledges $870 million to stop it shrinking, Xinhua news agency said on Friday.

                              Desertification had been brought about by overgrazing around Lake Qinghai, in the remote western province of Qinghai, which is at the crossroads of several bird migration routes across Asia and is about 360 km (220 miles) in circumference.

                              Overfishing had also reduced the catch of the unusual scaleless naked carp in the lake to just 10 percent of what it was 40 years ago, Xinhua said on its Web site (www.xinhuanet.com).

                              Over the next 10 years the government has pledged 6.8 billion yuan ($871.4 million) to address the lake's environmental problems, Xinhua added.

                              "Experts predict that if it continues shrinking at its present rate, the lake, which on average today is 18 meters (59 ft), could completely disappear in 200 years time," it said.

                              At the same time, glaciers on the nearby Qinghai-Tibet plateau had shrunk 131.4 square km annually in the last 30 years, Xinhua cited a report by the China Geological Survey Bureau as saying.

                              "What that means is that an area of glacier equivalent to twice the size of the Beijing downtown area disappears every year," it said.

                              "A further 13,000 square km of glacier -- nearly 28 percent of the total glacier area and equivalent to twice the area of Shanghai municipality -- will disappear by 2050 if no protective measures are taken," the report added, Xinhua said.

                              Diplomacy, it's a way of saying “nice doggie”, until you find a rock!

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